LAWRENCEVILLE, Ga. -

Black Book isn’t just pitching its products and services to finance companies nowadays. Its analysts and staff are trying to emphasize to executives and managers who watch loan-to-value ratios and overall portfolio status about how much risk is building and how important it is to watch how long it will take for a borrower to return to an equity position.

In light of Experian Automotive highlighting second-quarter data that showed 24.1 percent of all new-vehicle loans and 14.1 percent of all used-car contracts contained terms ranging from 73 to 84 months, Black Book took a closer look at comparative collateral data in order to drill deeper into this trend. The company recently leveraged its Collateral Insight Engine technology to compare two different vehicles based on the exact loan terms of 72 months, 5-percent interest and a 120 percent loan-to-value ratio.

Based on the data from the example, Black Book indicated one vehicle achieved a positive equity position in just 37 months, a whole 15 months earlier than the other vehicle (at 52 months).

What’s more, the first vehicle had approximately $3,000 more equity by the 24th month versus that of the second.

Black Book vice president of analytics Anil Goyal explained to SubPrime Auto Finance News during a recent phone interview that knowing the potential loss-given default provides the ability for finance companies to become more competitive with their portfolios while mitigating risk.

Additionally, Goyal pointed out that positive equity will pinpoint those loans that are less likely to default, giving finance companies yet one more data point to differentiate two loans that look otherwise identical.

“As trends have emerged in the lender community, this risk is even more heightened with longer terms,” he said. “You’ve got to have an analysis on when that vehicle is going to come into an equity position. The longer it takes, the longer you’re exposed to market conditions where the trends could change and the vehicle depreciates much faster.”

Goyal emphasized the two aspects when finance companies assess risk. The first is the frequency of default, “which is really indicated by the credit score and you can factor that into your price and get paid for that risk,” according to Goyal.

The other element he mentioned is severity of default.

“When someone doesn’t pay,” Goyal said, “what’s the equity on that loan? How much balance is remaining? What can you recover out of that when you repossess that vehicle?”

Goyal stressed that these two risk-assessment factors are heightening nowadays because of finance companies stretching terms.

“Basically the lenders are trying to provide that monthly payment that the customer can afford,” said Goyal, who joined Black Book in a full-time role back in July after serving in a variety of consulting functions for the firm along with positions at Bank of America and Citigroup.

“But the key risk that’s evolved in this is that you’re going to be underwater for a longer period of time because the equity takes much longer to build up,” he continued. “Meanwhile, you’re having this addition trend of vehicle values softening and getting more toward the pre-recession time frame. You’ve got this double whammy. You’ve got the equity under water and not building as quickly and at the time vehicle values depreciating more.”

During the recent interview, Goyal offered another hypothetical example with some figures involved. He explained that with a typical 36-month loan, a borrower will have paid about 30 percent of that principle balance in a year. If the term is 84 months, the borrower only paid down about 10 percent of that principle balance following a year of payments.

“If the value depreciated anywhere from 25 to 45 percent from that original retail price to that wholesale value in that 12-month period, you’re significantly underwater with that 84-month loan,” Goyal said. “That’s why we think it’s so important to monitor that and put that into your analysis as a lender to make sure you are appropriately accounting for that risk up front as well as in your portfolio evaluation.”

Yet another piece of the puzzle to consider: The kind of vehicle that’s being attached to the contract. Goyal noted that currently values of compact pickups and SUVs are holding strong. A couple of years ago, it was entry-level cars that held that distinction, but Goyal indicated that values for those kinds of units are softening because the supply of those vehicles is on the rise.

Goyal closed his conversation by mentioning that watching the portfolio isn’t just an important chore for the underwriting and recovery departments at finance companies. He stated it’s also important for marketing divisions to watch these trends, too, so they can approach current loan holders with new opportunities if they currently are in a positive equity position.

“We are able to tell lenders when a loan is going to be in an equity position, how long is it going to take to get there and for lenders to be able to account for that throughout the life cycle as well as what’s my portfolio looking like and how does that impact loss forecasting,” Goyal said.

“We are constantly watching these trends,” he continued. “But as the market evolves these trends will change. That’s what we emphasize monitoring your portfolio is very important from a collateral viewpoint,” he added.