Edmunds head of insights Jessica Caldwell showed why she’s  one of this year’s Automotive Intelligence Award recipients by explaining how used electric vehicles can help in solving the affordability challenge for some consumers.

Especially with average gas prices are now well above $3 per gallon.

According to AAA, the average price of a gallon of gas sat at $3.57 on Wednesday, nearly 40 cents higher than a week ago because of the intensifying conflicts in the Middle East. Caldwell also explained why the current fuel spike could create a different response than three years ago when the clash involving Russia and the Ukraine created similar gas-price movements.

“Previous major fuel price spikes occurred in a different automotive market than the one consumers face today,” Caldwell wrote in an analysis posted Wednesday. “While the 2022 fuel price surge following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine helped drive increased consumer interest in fuel-efficient vehicles, financing and pricing conditions have grown more challenging since then — making the vehicle affordability crisis even more pronounced today.”

Caldwell said Edmunds then compared last month’s financing costs and vehicle prices with those from February 2022.

“The comparison shows that switching vehicles is considerably more expensive today. The average transaction price for a new vehicle reached $48,766 in February 2026, compared with $45,596 in February 2022, according to Edmunds data,” Caldwell wrote.

“Borrowing costs have risen even more sharply: The average APR for a new vehicle loan climbed from 4.4% in February 2022 to 7.0% in February 2026, pushing the average monthly payment from $656 to $775 over the same period,” she added.

As a result, Caldwell sees a potential surge in shopper interest and possible retailing and financing of used EVs. She ran more numbers to explain her thinking.

“According to Edmunds data, the mix of vehicles expected to return from leases in 2026 includes a significantly higher share of electrified vehicles than in previous years. While internal combustion vehicles made up 93% of expected lease returns in 2025, that share is projected to fall to 82% in 2026,” Caldwell wrote.

“At the same time, electrified vehicles will represent a much larger portion of those returning vehicles. The share of battery electric vehicles is projected to rise from 2% of lease returns in 2025 to 8% in 2026, while hybrids and plug-in hybrids will also account for a larger portion of off-lease inventory,” she continued.

Then Caldwell touched on what dealers and lenders already might have been experiencing before the U.S. entered a military conflict with Iran, triggering much of the current fuel-cost ramifications.

“For some lessees returning an electric vehicle this year, buying out the lease may not be the most economical option,” Caldwell continued. “Residual values set when those vehicles were originally leased may now exceed the price of comparable used vehicles on the market. As a result, more lessees may choose to return their vehicles at the end of the lease rather than purchase them, potentially adding supply to the used EV market.

“As more of these vehicles enter the used market, shoppers looking to reduce fuel costs may find more affordable electrified options than buying new,” she went on to say. “Because many of these vehicles are only a few years old, buyers may also benefit from improved range and technology compared with earlier EV models.”

Those closing comments are why the upcoming Used Car Industry Summit in Miami includes EV Day, which features several dealer-driven sessions devoted to helping stores get consumers into used electric vehicles.

Furthermore, Caldwell and the other Automotive Intelligence Award recipients will be honored during the Used Car Industry Summit, which begins on April 13.

Complete agenda details, hotel accommodations and more can be found online at www.usedcarsummit.biz.