The pool of consumers potentially falling into the subprime credit tier might grow by nearly 6 million individuals based on the trends connected with student loans recently highlighted by TransUnion.

New research from TransUnion revealed that the number of consumers delinquent on student loans and at risk for entering default continues to climb less than two months since the U.S. Department of Education resumed collections activities among defaulted federal student loan borrowers.

The updated analysis found that as of April — the latest month for which data are available — 31.0% of federal student loan borrowers with a payment due are 90 days or more past due as reported by their servicer.

Analysts said this reading represents a sharp increase over the February figure of 20.5% reported as part of a previous TransUnion analysis in early May. It also stands at nearly triple the 11.7% figure from February 2020, just prior to the start of the pandemic.

In addition, borrowers who have been newly reported as delinquent on their student loans have seen significant drops in their credit scores as a result, by an average of 60 points (based on VantageScore 4.0).

TransUnion also pointed out that the April delinquency rate of 90 days past due represents the highest figure ever recorded.

However, analysts acknowledged it does represent only a modest increase over March’s 30.6% rate, which may indicate that more student loan borrowers are becoming aware of the importance of maintaining on-time payments.

“We continue to see more and more federal student loan borrowers being reported as the 90+ days delinquent, making a larger number of consumers vulnerable to entering default and the start of collections activities,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion.

“That said, based on the relatively small increase between March 2025 and April 2025, it is possible that the figures are close to peaking. We will continue to analyze data in the weeks and months to come to see if that bears out,” Raneri continued.

TransUnion also noted that the 31.0% delinquency figure in April is largely made up of borrowers who are not yet in default, with only 0.3% of borrowers already in that status. The total is made up of an estimated 5.8 million federal student loan borrowers who have been reported to TransUnion and other credit bureaus as 90-plus days past due.

Analysts explained that approximately 180 days following the loan’s first 90 days past due delinquency reporting — at 270 days past due — the borrower enters default status. That’s when the borrower is subject to collection actions by the U.S. Department of Education.

Of the 5.8 million newly delinquent borrowers, TransUnion said it is estimated that nearly one-third, approximately 1.8 million, could reach default status in July. An additional one million of the 5.8 million total are estimated to reach default status in August, followed by two million more in September.

The analysis also found that more than one in five federal student loan borrowers currently reported as 90-plus days late were in prime or above credit risk tiers prior to going delinquent.

Following delinquency, fewer than one in 50 were prime and above, according to TransUnion tracking.

In fact, analysts said nearly every borrower not already subprime who ultimately fell 90 days past due on their federal student loans shifted down at least one risk tier, with many, particularly those who were previously in the lowest risk super prime range, falling two or more tiers.

“This underscores the fact that student loan borrowers of any credit risk tier can find themselves falling behind in their payments and at risk for default, even during a time in which we’ve seen most consumers are managing their debt relatively well,” said Joshua Turnbull, senior vice president and head of consumer lending at TransUnion.

“It’s important that lenders stay abreast of the true risk of the borrowers in their portfolio through the implementation of student loan-specific insights into regular portfolio reviews,” Turnbull went on to say.

Raneri added that federal student loan borrowers who are at risk should contact their loan servicers as soon as possible to inquire about potential options that may exist to avoid defaulting.

“Options may include income-driven repayment or other payment plans specific to their situation. There are also loan rehabilitation programs that may allow those who do default to get out of default status,” she said.