Cox Automotive’s Mark Strand and Paul Machin of Vintraxx Automotive each made astute observations about affordability and the subprime market on social media ahead of the newest views of consumer sentiments that keep sagging.

The April reading of the Survey of Consumers conducted by the University of Michigan dropped another 3.5 points to the lowest point since June 2022, with researchers noticing decreases in sentiment present across political party, income, age, and education.

“Expected business conditions declined for both short- and long-time horizons, nearly matching year-ago readings when the reciprocal tariff regime was implemented,” said Joanne Hsu, who is director of Surveys of Consumers for the University of Michigan.

“After the two-week cease-fire was announced and gas prices softened a touch, sentiment recovered a modest portion of its early month losses,” Hsu continued in her analysis. “The Iran conflict appears to influence consumer views primarily through shocks to gasoline and potentially other prices. In contrast, military and diplomatic developments that do not lift supply constraints or lower energy prices are unlikely to buoy consumers.”

And when it comes to those consumers, affordability for everything from vehicles to vegetables seems to be top of mind. And to make car payments fit into their budgets, Strand pointed out that consumers have committed to longer contracts.

“The average term on a new-car loan is on the verge of 70 months. I remember about a decade ago when it crossed the 60-month threshold and there was some concerned acknowledgement of the milestone,” Strand, who deputhy chief economist at Cox Automotive, wrote on LinkedIn.

“Researching back then I found the same concerns were circulating in the 1970s when the affordability crisis in that decade first unanchored auto loan terms.” Strand continued. “Through the 1950s and 1960s the standard auto loan term was 36 months. The drift upward started in the 1970s when prices and cost of living began to outpace wages.

“It’s been the case ever since. The degree varied a bit with cycles but the drift up in loan terms as the release valve for stagnant incomes versus cost of living has been a constant. Almost 10 months have been added to the average term over the last 10 years to make monthly payments workable,” Strand said.

And before dealers and finance companies lean into thinking that this evolution is confined to a lower portion of the consumer credit market, Machin brought up Experian Automotive data in his LinkedIn post.

“The industry keeps talking like affordability is a subprime problem. That is outdated thinking. We are now watching a Prime+ customer migration down market in real time,” Machin wrote, noting that, prime+ consumers purchased new vehicles only 36% by the end of 2025, according to Experian, with more than 52% of vehicles acquired by individuals in the prime+ credit segment being at least 9 years old

“That should stop every dealer principal and GM in their tracks, Machin continued, “because it means the customer who used to absorb your newer used inventory — and in many cases your new inventory — is now saying: ‘I can buy more… but I’m not willing to carry more.’”

Machin, who has been general manager of a CarMax dealership, spent more than a decade at Dealertrack and another six years at Black Book, quickly offered his reason why

“Because the vehicle payment is no longer competing with just another vehicle payment,” Machin wrote. “It is competing with mortgage payments, insurance, credit cards, utilities, groceries, student loans, and the total cost of simply living.”

Does scenario mean auto loans simply will be extended into perpetuity?

“I don’t know the threshold that will serve as a wall, but I could see this going on to exceed an average of 72 months,” Strand wrote.

“But beyond that, approaching 84 (months), the math starts to not work. Above 84 months, the returns on payment relief diminish and time underwater and negative equity become even bigger challenges,” he continued.

“If the drift up follows the pace of the last decade, we’ll pass the 72-month milestone in 3-4 years,” Strand went on to write. “But given the many shocks we’ve seen in this decade we may see it even sooner.”