Cox Automotive recently projected slight softening of certified pre-owned vehicle sales and overall used-car retail transactions for the year.

But experts also see the movements reflected “strength and resilience” of the used-car market.

Let’s get into the numbers.

As part of its Q2 2026 Mid-Year Review in Detroit, Cox Automotive chief economist Jeremy Robb recapped that this year’s used-car retail sales are expected to come in at 38.4 million units, which would be down less than 1% year-over-year.

Robb added that Cox Automotive is still expecting to see 2.6 million CPO sales this year. That number would represent roughly a 2% drop compared to last year’s final tally.

The projections prompted Cox Automotive deputy chief economist Mark Strand to say, “When you combine the tough comp versus the tariff driven market frenzy with an energy shock, rising inflation and ongoing general affordability pressures, the small decline in the used sales pace looks like relative strength and resilience.”

Robb added later in the presentation that, “Affordability drives demand for used units, but lower new-car sales mean fewer trade-ins, and that means lower used sales for dealers.”

Cox Automotive sees new-car retail sales coming at 12.9 million this year, which would mark a 3.4% decline year-over-year.

Turning back to the used-car retail scene, Cox Automotive noted prices are up about 3% year-over-year, nearly touching $30,500 on average. That data stems from the top 50 models that are 3 years old and newer.

“Further, we see retail price growth holding generally positive across most other age groups, as well,” Strand said.

“My hypothesis is that with higher fuel prices and accelerating inflation, felt by consumers as a decline in real incomes, we are getting incremental demand channeled toward the used market,” he continued. “It’s common in tougher or uncertain times to see cautious buyers divert to a used vehicle. In this market, with very tight supply conditions for newer vintage / lower mileage used vehicles, it doesn’t take much in terms of shifting demand to see material moves in pricing.”

Strand also touched on used-car retailing through the prism of the ever-changing wholesale market.

“There is intense competition in the market for limited used-vehicle inventory. Franchised and smaller independent dealers are in a heated battle with Carvana, CarMax and each other to acquire used vehicles to fill their lots,” Strand said.

“And when you think about used-vehicle demand there is a bit of a multiplier beyond simply how many individuals or households need or want a car at a given moment. Dealers also want to keep lots looking full so the front-line captures drive-by attention. They want a good selection of highly desirable inventory to drive engagement to their websites and generate leads and new customer relationships,” he continued.

“Consider all that in the context of the fundamental limitations on supply of newer, low-milage vehicles relative to the enormous pent-up demand out there, and wholesale values are likely to continue to run ahead of last year’s pace,” Strand went on to say.