NADA UCG: Compact Car Wholesale Prices Beginning to Reflect Rising Fuel Rates

Gas prices are on the rise. And perhaps connected to this trend,  the compact car wholesale price slides seen this summer are slowing, as consumers take note of rising fuel rates, once again. According to NADA Used Car Guide’s analysis of wholesale prices, another segment is spiraling downward.

For this week, the midsize van segment is expected to see the biggest drops over the course of the current week, as prices are expected to fall around 1.8 percent or $250. 

Moreover, the two-week average rate of depreciation for the mid-size van segment saw the biggest drop off at 3.6 percent.

Following closely behind this week will be the luxury utility and midsize car segments, which are expected to decline by 1.2 percent apiece.

And per the Energy Information Administration data released this week, the average price of regular grade gasoline (all formulations) increased from $3.43 to $3.49. In light of this trend, the compact car segments prices are leveling out and only expected to see a small decline of around 0.2 percent.

Moving on to highlight additional segments, NADA UCG also reported the midsize utility segment will see a small decline as well, of around 0.1 percent.

On the other hand, the large pickup segment is picking up in the lanes. This segment is expected to see increases of 1.0 percent or $175, officials reported.

Citing other expected wholesale price rises for this week, “the compact utility and luxury car segments are expected to see slight increases over the course of the current week to the tune of 0.4 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively,” NADA UCG shared.

Lastly, the large SUV segment is expected to remain flat in comparison to last week.

Four- and two-week AuctionNet wholesale average prices are created by collecting all AuctionNet records for vehicles  up to five years of age for a specified period of time.  Prices are then adjusted for changes in mileage and mix.

Current week prices are based on NADA’s proprietary used vehicle value model which includes assumptions for new vehicle prices, used vehicle supply, gasoline prices, and other economic factors.

Black Book Spots Most Severe Declines of 2012

Looking at a broader time period, Black Book’s Ricky Beggs shared the five car and five truck segments that have shown the greatest decrease in used pricing since the beginning of the year.

Topping the car list was the near-luxury segment, whose value on July 6 ($11,025) was down 5.7 percent from its value on Jan. 6 ($11,696). Not far behind was the luxury level car, whose values dipped 5.6 percent and came in at $14,163.

On the truck side of the market, the steepest decline was in the full-size van cargo class. Values here dipped 6.2 percent from Jan. 6 ($10,246) to July 6 ($9,609). Next on the list was the minivan cargo category, which dropped 6.1 percent during this time frame and reached $4,940.

Overall, used prices for car segments, on avearge, have dropped 4.4 percent to $13, 574. For the average truck segment, the used price has fallen 4.9 percent to $12,198.

“Several factors have led to these price declines at the wholesale level, including more trade-ins adding to used inventory,” said Beggs. "Seasonality is also in play here as we’re seeing adjustments ahead of the new 2013 model year."

The complete top 5 for used-car and used-truck price declines is as follows, with January-to-July change in parenthesis:

Cars
1. Near-Luxury Car (down 5.7 percent
2. Luxury Level Car (down 5.6 percent)
3. Prestige Luxury Car (down 4.8 percent)
4. Premium Sporty Car (down 3.6 percent)
5. Full-Size Car (down 3.2 percent)

Trucks
1. Full-Size Van Cargo (down 6.2 percent)
2. Minivan Cargo (down 6.1 percent)
3. Luxury SUV (down 5.5 percent)
4. Full-Size Van Wagon (down 5.3 percent)
5. Minivan Wagon (down 4.6 percent)

More AuctionNet Data

Sharing more of its AuctionNet findings, NADA UCG provided the following chart to illustrate its data: