WASHINGTON, D.C. -

Leaders in mobility initiatives from several U.S. cities and foreign countries, as well as representatives from the auto industry, technology industry, plus regulators, non-profits and the news media, gathered here  in the sprawling Walter E. Washington Convention Center late last week to discuss impact, policy and best practices in mobility as we embark on a new decade.

The fifth annual Mobility Talks International functioned as an intensive, two-day dialogue among many players who have a stake in the future of mobility. It’s held on the eve of the annual Washington Auto Show which runs daily through Feb. 2. Both events are hosted by the Washington Area New Automobile Dealers Association (WANADA).

How will the future of auto dealerships change and evolve over the next decade and what are the disruptors ahead for consumers and retailers? This topic was discussed in a roundtable session “Disruption in Dealerships” jointly attended by members of the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) and participants in the Mobility Talks International.

Answering the question of what could be the “biggest disruptor facing dealerships” in the new decade, a diverse panel consisting of a scientist, an auto dealer group executive, an automotive consultant and an aftermarket entrepreneur all had different takes on what disruption could mean in the next decade in the retail automotive space.

“I think trust will be the key discriminator,” said Dr. John L. Campbell, senior managing scientist for Exponent, who has 30 years’ experience studying issues related to human performance and whose expertise includes the design of advanced driver-vehicle interfaces including head-up displays, night driver vision, collision warning and other interfaces for connected and automated vehicles. “Whether you’re selling mobility or selling cars, the dealer has to build and maintain trust.”

Bill Cariss, president and chief executive officer of Holman Strategic Ventures, affiliated with Holman Automotive, one of the largest privately-owned dealership groups in the U.S. with 36 dealership franchises representing 17 brands, saw disruption on the horizon in the way cars are sold.

“I’d like to think we’re a trusted dealer and I agree trust is a big issue,” he said. “But Holman has been selling cars for 95 years, so people trust us.”

He said it was easier to start a brand from the ground up, conceding an advantage to new brands entering or re-entering the retail market and cited the clean sheet approach to auto retailing that was employed by Saturn and its national dealer network when the brand was launched by General Motors in 1985.

“Consumers today are expecting an experience that dealers can’t consistently deliver,” he said.

Glenn Mercer, a former auto industry analyst at McKinsey & Co. who now runs his own consulting shop, said simply “competition” still looms as the main disruptor facing dealerships. He cited, as an example, online video streaming leading to the demise of Blockbuster.

“Build-to-order sales were going to be the next wave of innovation in auto retailing in the 1980s and 90s, but it never happened,” he said. “We still build the vehicles and park them outdoors for two months until they are sold.”

The panelists also talked about auto retailing and the resistance of consumers and dealers to adopt the “Amazon Effect” of buying vehicles online.

Cariss cited the fragmentation of the industry as the result of more than 18,000 rooftops and 7,000 owners.

“Customers like to go at their own speed (of the sales process) whether online or in the store,” he said. “But dealers should figure out direct-to-customer sales.”

Tony Frangiosa, president and CEO of InstallerNet, a mobile electronics aftermarket provider, said he worries about auto retailers’ core business model going stale from being conducted the way it has traditionally been conducted for decades.

“I worry about auto dealerships going the way of travel agencies,” he said.

Mercer argued for the traditional way of selling vehicles as a hedge against the complexity of buying and selling an expensive asset like a vehicle.

“Sure, people want to speed up the process and not spend as much time in dealerships, but on the other hand, you don’t want a customer reaction to be, ‘Why are you trying to rush me? What are your trying to hide?’”

On the topic of auto retailing in 2030, the panelists foresee fewer retailers, yet more cars on the road because of an increase in average age of vehicles, a trend toward factory-direct sales and the increased marketing of technology content to differentiate and sell vehicles.

Frangiosa predicted dealers will add a sales staff position called a “technologist” to explain, demonstrate and simplify a vehicle’s advanced technology available to consumers.