CARY, N.C. -

Wholesale vehicle prices remain at an elevated level in the first half of November, according to a mid-month reading of the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index.

Prices could slow in these last few weeks of 2020, according to analysis from J.D. Power's David Paris, but are expected to end the year stronger than where they were before COVID-19.

Starting with Manheim's report, the mid-month index was up 16.9% year-over-year, coming in at 162.5.

Wholesale prices in the month’s first half were up 0.3%  (on a mix-, mileage- and seasonally adjusted basis) from an already strong October.

Manheim pointed out in an analysis of the index that, “the non-seasonally adjusted monthly change was -0.9%, which was closer to what we have been seeing in weekly price trends. The difference between the two metrics is largely a result of the seasonal adjustment, which expects a decline in November. For example, across the full history of the Manheim Index, November has averaged a 0.6% monthly decline in the NSA price. But over the last five years, that decline has been 1.0%.”

Prices in segments like pickups (up 29.1%) and luxury cars (up 22.4%) were up even higher than the industry average (up 16.9%) when compared to mid-November 2019, according to Manheim.

SUV/CUV prices climbed 14.5% in the first half of the month, compact cars were up 7.3%, vans were up 5.8% and midsize cars were up 1.4%.

Rental risk prices climbed 2.5% year-over-year in the month’s first half, but dipped 3% month-over-month.

Looking at weekly trends, the J.D. Power Valuation Services said in a report released Thursday that the week ending Nov. 8 was the 12th straight time that wholesale auction prices were down from the prior week's.

The company’s Weekly Wholesale Auction Price Index was at 106.1. that week, down from 107.1 the prior week.

After peaking in August, wholesale prices have fallen 8%, J.D. Power said. However, they’re up 25% since bottoming out in April and have climbed 6% since March, according to this post from Paris.

“Despite a slowing used market, wholesale prices remain strong. Prices are expected to continue to move lower through the remaining weeks of November and December as pent-up demand has been satisfied and pandemic-related macro-economic headwinds increase. By year's end, prices are expected to be greater than pre-virus levels,” Paris said.

He cautions that a number of unknowns on a macro-economic level could affect used-price movements. 

“It is important to note, however, that while the outlook is relatively optimistic, there remains a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the effect of new virus outbreaks, the potential for another round of federal stimulus and overall employment conditions,” Paris said. “Given these unknowns, a heightened degree of market volatility should be expected.”