Initial estimates for used-car retail sales in November are down on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis, but comparisons to pre-COVID numbers are improving.

That’s according to analysis from Cox Automotive, which bases its sales estimates on a same-store set of dealership data from its Dealertrack business unit.

Cox estimates there was a 1% month-over-month decline in used retail sales in November, and a 10% decline from November 2021.

While the 22% drop from November 2019 may seem staggering, Cox says it is more favorable than October’s comparison to pre-COVID levels.

“Credit transactions heavily influence the same-store data series, and growth in cash purchase activity is likely causing the estimates to decline more than actual market sales,” the company said.

Using the same Dealertrack data, Cox estimates that used retail sales fell 2% week-over-week for the week ending Saturday, but improved year-over-year, chief economist Jonathan Smoke said in a video report Tuesday.

“New inventory is finally starting to build and that’s producing momentum in new retail sales,” Smoke said. “But that momentum seems to be at the expense of used retail, especially because it’s the traditional used-car buyer that is most impacted by payment affordability.

“But we are seeing used-vehicle prices accelerate in their decline and that should eventually help that buyer, but unfortunately, the Fed’s not done raising rates.”