Black Book and Fitch Ratings collaborate to release 2024 Vehicle Depreciation Report
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Black Book, in collaboration with Fitch Ratings, unveiled a new report on Monday.
With the first installment titled, “Shifting Gears: A Comprehensive Overview of Automotive Trends in 2023,” experts released the 2024 Vehicle Depreciation Report, which presents key developments and data from the U.S. new- and used-vehicle markets, including notable trends in depreciation, sales and fleet performance.
Here are the three used-vehicle market trends Black Book and Fitch Ratings noted in the report:
—Depreciation rates: The used-vehicle market experienced a 20.4% depreciation rate, with EVs seeing deeper declines at roughly 30%.
—Auction performance: Although auction conversion rates dipped to 50%, sales performance improved towards the year’s end.
—Inventory and sales: Inventory levels rebounded from 2021 lows, and franchised dealers regained market share.
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Experts mentioned two specific challenges for the electric-vehicle space, including:
—MSRP reductions: Significant price cuts in new BEVs, particularly by Tesla, affected used BEV market values.
—Remarketing strategies: The mismanagement of off-lease BEVs and rental returns led to sharp depreciation.
Black Book and Fitch Ratings touched on four insights from the U.S. new-vehicle market, including:
—Sales growth: The U.S. new vehicle market saw robust growth in 2023, with sales surpassing 15.4 million units, up 10% from 2022.
—Increased leasing: Leasing experienced a resurgence driven by incentives and EV sales, though still below pre-pandemic levels.
—EV market dynamics: EV sales exceeded one million units, leading to oversupply and impacted used EV values, notably affecting Tesla’s market share.
—Inflated MSRPs and Incentives: Average new-car incentives reached 4.6% of MSRP, a modest rise but still far from historic highs.
Experts rounded up the report highlights with a trio of other performance and projections:
—Depreciation: The market confronted significant depreciation in the latter half of 2023, with projections indicating an 18% depreciation rate for 2024.
—High depreciation continues: Seasonal patterns saw notable declines, highlighted by a record single-week depreciation of 1.86% in late October.
—ABS performance and outlook: Predicting a return to traditional seasonal behaviors with varied incentives across different OEMs.
Experts also noted the Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index — which reflects the health of the used vehicle wholesale market — showed a decline of 10% in 2023 yet forecasted to remain above pre-COVID levels.
The complete 2024 Vehicle Depreciation Report can be downloaded via this website.