Expected new-car production cuts already impacting used-car sales & prices

Handwringing in the new-car market is already driving up sales and prices in the retail used-car market, according to analysis around the latest CARFAX Used Car Index, which saw prices increase nationally month-over-month in April for every segment it tracks.
Amid the Trump administration’s tariffs driving economic uncertainty, used-car prices climbed at twice the rate they typically do in April, CARFAX said, and used-car sales were more than twice as high as they were in April 2024.
SUV prices climbed 1.1% month-over-month in April and rose 0.8% year-over-year, CARFAX data shows. Car prices were down 3.2% from last April, but were up 1.0% from March.
Pickup truck prices fell 3.5% year-over-year and climbed 2.1% sequentially, according to CARFAX.
Luxury SUVs were up 1.7% month-over-month and 1.5% year-over-year. Luxury car prices climbed 0.8% from March and 1.5% from April 2024. Hybrids and electric vehicles were up 0.8% sequentially and 0.9% from a year ago.
CARFAX is largely seeing price gains across the eight regions in its data set, as well.
The Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, South and Northeast showed month-over-month gains across the board, while the Plains states had a couple segments decline.
The Southeast, Southwest (minivans/vans) and West (luxury cars) each had one segment showed a price dip from March
CARFAX parent company S&P Global anticipates that new-car production will be reduced this year and next, with the cuts being the sharpest since COVID. In turn, consumers scurrying to grab dealerships’ existing new cars will soften supply, CARFAX said.
“Put those together, and consumers who can’t find the new cars they want will likely turn to the used-car market,” CARFAX editor in chief Patrick Olsen wrote in the analysis.
“And some consumers will continue to move quickly before anticipated higher prices hit. Trade talks are continuing as of this writing; if or when new car prices tick upward, it’s likely used car prices will follow along.”