Through three quarters of the year, certified pre-owned vehicle sales are beating 2024 figures by nearly 3%, despite a precipitous month-over-month decline in September.

That’s according to Cox Automotive, which said in an October analysis citing Motor Intelligence data that there were an estimated 194,020 CPO sales last month.

That beat September 2024 figures by 6.7% but trailed August numbers by 19.4%, Cox said.

Still, certified sales through nine months are up 2.7% year-over-year, the company said.

Overall, franchised and independent dealers moved 1.42 million used vehicles last month, which beat prior-year numbers by 6.6% but was a 5.2% drop from August, Cox said, citing vAuto Live Market View data from the most recent 30-day period.

“Used-vehicle retail sales fell more sharply than new-vehicle sales in September. Seasonal patterns and affordability pressures were likely the main drivers of this pullback,” said Scott Vanner, manager of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive, in the analysis.

“The recent reduction in the Federal Reserve’s rate has not yet resulted in lower used auto loan rates,” he said. “Rather, a modest rise in subprime rates and an increased proportion of subprime loans have elevated average used auto loan rates to over 14%.”

In a forecast updated Sept. 25, Cox said it anticipates full-year CPO sales between 2.5 million and 2.7 million, versus the original forecast of 2.5 million.

Overall used-vehicle sales are projected to come in between 37.9 million and 38.5 million, up from the original forecast of 37.8 million. Retail used sales (those involving a dealer) are projected to reach 20 million to 20.5 million. The original forecast was 20.1 million.