The wholesale vehicle market has made a strong start to 2026, with industry indices pointing to several indicators of market health in the first two months of the year.

Starting with Black Book, its monthly Used Vehicle Retention Index for February was down 1.0% from a year ago but climbed 2.3% month-over-month as the “seasonal lift” at the auctions in late January continued.

The index was at 145.0 for February, compared to 141.7 in January and 146.4 a year ago.

“At the close of January, we saw the first signs of a seasonal lift in the auction lanes, with values posting early-year gains that carried through February and drove the Index up 2.3%,” said Laura Wehunt, Black Book’s vice president of data & analytics, in an analysis.

“Many of the mainstream segments that experienced steep depreciation in the fourth quarter rebounded sharply, including midsize crossovers, which rose 3.2%, and full-size cars, up 3.6%,” Wehunt said. “Conversion rates held above 60% throughout February, underscoring sustained and healthy buyer demand.”

Over at Cox Automotive, analysts have noticed similarly strong buyer appetites at its Manheim auctions.

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index came in at 212.3 for February, up 4% year-over-year and up 0.8%, when adjusted mix, mileage and seasonality.

Unadjusted, prices were up 4.2% year-over-year and 3% month-over-month.

“Since the start of 2026, we’ve seen mostly solid demand at Manheim with higher sales conversion rates indicating an appetite from dealers to buy. As we progressed through February, we saw prices move higher than usual, especially in the back half of the month,” Cox Automotive chief economist Jeremy Robb said in analysis. “The last week of January and early February threw some winter weather at dealer groups, which they indicated slowed down traffic as reported in our Q1 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index, released earlier this week.”

Amid March and its warmer weather, recent data suggests retail demand for new and used cars is climbing, Robb said. That could be bolstered by tax season, with the caveat of geopolitical risks potentially dampening demand.

“The average tax refund is running 10% higher this year, as we hit some of the strongest weeks for consumer filing, and we are expecting to see that translate to more traffic at dealerships in March,” Robb said.

“At the same time, recent geopolitical events introduce new risks to the economy, and that may put a damper on consumer appetite in the short run, as people digest the news in the Middle East,” he said. “This could slow the building pace we see on the back of tax refund season, particularly as gas prices rise. All in, the impact may be more acutely felt early in the month, with a pickup in demand building as we move through March.”