Amid unusual monthly rise in used-car retail prices, ‘silver lining’ remains for consumers & dealers
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Customers are likely to bristle at the money they shell out to buy a used car these days. Percentagewise, the jump in price from March to April was about three times the typical sequential change for a given month, says Carfax.
But there may be some relief for shoppers on the other side of the vehicle lifecycle, as their old rides are fetching higher dollars.
According to the latest Carfax Used Car Index, used-car retail prices this month have climbed an average of 2.8% (or roughly $800) from March.
That is not normal.
“That’s a rare jump; prices typically only change by a percentage point or less each month,” Carfax editor-in-chief Patrick Olsen wrote in analysis around the index. “A 2.8% change is what we usually see for year-over-year changes.”
But the “silver lining” is that depreciation has slowed considerably compared to pre-pandemic levels, so shoppers with a trade-in are likely to receive more for their trade-in, Olsen said.
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And given how many stores have leaned into buying consumer cars amid inventory shortages in recent years, that’s a win for dealers, too.
With used-car demand exceeding supply in recent years, many dealers have shifted “sales teams” to “buying teams,” said Brett Keckeisen, who is sales operations manager at Toyota Certified Used Vehicles, in an interview earlier this year about certified pre-owned strategies.
“So instead of getting the commission or getting paid to sell cars, they’re getting paid to acquire cars,” Keckeisen said. “And they’ll scour the internet, they’ll go on Marketplace, they’ll go on Craigslist, they’ll do the service mining, they’ll go to concerts, they’ll go anywhere where there’s a bunch of cars. And their main focus is just acquiring the inventory they want.
“Do they strike out a lot? Probably. But do they hit a bunch of cars they probably wouldn’t have gotten (otherwise), in the process? Yes.”
It’s a simple as a dealer salesperson leaving their business card on the hood of a vehicle, with a note that says, “If you’re interested in selling it, give me a call,” he said.
Such a strategy is prudent given the recent depreciation data from Carfax.
The average 1-year depreciation pre-COVID was about 20%, with 5-year depreciation at about 50%, according to Carfax.
These days, though, the average 1-year depreciation is 12.5%, with 5-year depreciation narrowing to roughly 34%, Carfax used-car listings indicate.
In the analysis, Olsen outlines how depreciation has changed on a $50,000 vehicle, for example.
Pre-COVID, if a 1-year-old vehicle sold for $50,000, a year later it would likely be valued at $40,000. Five years later, its value would be $25,000.
These days, that vehicle’s value only drops to $43,750 after one year and is still worth $33,000 at the five-year mark.
“This new reality means that there could be a lot more money in the pockets of sellers,” Olsen wrote. “To be clear: These are averages, and some models keep their value more than others, so owners looking to sell should check the Carfax History-Based Value for their vehicle. It’s always a good practice to have an idea of your car’s value before you try to sell it.”
And to check its trade-in equity, which has struggled as of late, according to a forecast last week from J.D. Power.
Values may have gone up, but the shopper could still own more on the car than it’s worth.
The firm said average trade-in equity was projected to reach $7,099 in April, which is $660 less than April 2025. Nearly a third (31.3%) of trade-ins are expected to have negative equity this month, up from 25.8% a year ago.
That’s the highest negative equity share for April since 2020, J.D. Power said.
“Despite easing borrowing costs, average monthly (new-vehicle) finance payments are expected to increase 3.1% year over year to $812, driven primarily by continued deterioration in trade‑in equity,” said Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at J.D. Power, in an analysis.
He added that shoppers who bought cars during the inventory shortage peak four years are back in market on the new-car side and bringing negative equity with them, so OEMs are having to adapt.
“In response, manufacturers are increasing incentive support to help offset the impact of negative equity. Average incentive spending per vehicle is trending towards $3,141, an 11.1% increase from a year ago,” King said. “Incentives as a percentage of MSRP are expected to hit 6.1% in April, up 0.5 percentage points from April 2025.”
April used-car price changes by segment
Going back to used-car prices, the Carfax Used Car Index outlined how various used-vehicle segments have performed this month.
Prices for SUVs are at an average of $24,167, which is up 2.5% from March and 2.0% from April 2025.
Car prices ($18,576) have climbed 3.5% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year, while pickup trucks ($33,947) are up 2.4% from March and up 3.9% from a year ago, Carfax saiod.
Luxury SUV prices came in at $35,580, a 3.6% month-over-month increase and a 4.3% hike from April 2025.
At $33,750, luxury car prices are up a staggering 13.5% year-over-year and climbed 2.9% from March, the Carfax data shows.
Hybrid/EV prices ($31,808) are up 3.8% from March and 6.5% from April 2025.
Van prices ($22,714) had the most modest of months, climbing 0.9% from March and 1.0% from a year ago