Black Book’s monthly measure of wholesale used-vehicle values fell to its lowest level in nearly five years last month, with price depreciation “outside normal seasonal expectations.”

Specifically, the company’s Used Vehicle Retention Index came in at 140.3 for November. The last time it was that low was January 2021, during the throes of COVID.

November’s reading was down 1.2% month-over-month and off 5% year-over-year, Black Book said.

“While larger depreciation in the fourth quarter is not uncommon, the scale of November’s decline was outside normal seasonal expectations,” said Laura Wehunt, Black Book’s vice president of data & analytics, in an analysis.

“The steepest declines occurred in the mainstream segments, while luxury segments followed more typical seasonal patterns,” Wehunt said. “For example, the luxury car segment’s index rose 1% compared with 2024, whereas the subcompact car segment’s index fell 12% over the same period.”

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index tells a different story.

The index came in at 205.4 for November, which was up 1.3% from October and unchanged year-over-year, when adjusting for mix, mileage and seasonality.

Unadjusted, though, values were down 0.3% month-over-month and unchanged from November 2024, says parent company Cox Automotive, noting that last month was “giving back some of the strength observed throughout most of this year.”

“Like most metrics we track across the automotive landscape, wholesale prices dipped in October before showing modest improvement in November,” Cox Automotive interim chief economist Jeremy Robb said in an analysis.

“As November progressed, both new and used retail sales lifted from October levels, and the longest government shutdown in history came to an end. While consumer sentiment remains subdued, early reads suggest confidence is recovering,” Robb said.

“We’re seeing good vehicle sales supported by lower APR rates, and price depreciation is trending back to normal, with values slightly higher than usual,” he added. “We’re also only a month from January, when lower tax withholding rates will boost take-home pay. Once consumers feel that in their paychecks and realize their tax refunds could be substantially higher this year, we are expecting some tailwinds to hit the auto market.”

Cox also pointed out there was a 1.9% drop in MMR prices for the 3-year-old index last month. At 98.9%, the MMR retention fell 50 basis points from November 2024 and dipped 0.1 percentage points month-over-month.

Conversion rates averaged 57.2%, beating October levels by 2.9 points, Cox said. Compared to the most recent three-year average, conversion rates were up 5.2 points. D.

What to make of that? Typically, MMR rates fall1.7% during this period. November’s rate of decline was steeper (1.9%) but that subsided throughout the month.

“Although MMR retention decreased somewhat, it remains generally in line with expectations for this time of year,” Cox said. “Meanwhile, sales conversion indicates a modest strengthening of demand, with conversions higher than usual for this time of year.”