Used-car sales: A mix of good news & bad news

It has been another tough month for used-vehicle sales, though some positive signs are emerging.
First, the full-month forecast.
TrueCar’s ALG business unit is forecasting a 71% year-over-year decline in used-car sales in April, projecting a monthly tally of 1,086,494 used sales. That would also represent a 60% month-over-month decline.
Franchised dealers, specifically, sold a little less than 400,000 used vehicles in the four weeks up to April 19, according to J.D. Power Valuation Services, which compared that sum to wholesale auction sales during the same period (93,000).
“To put this in perspective, pre-virus there were approximately two used retail sales at franchise dealers for every auction sale. This ratio has averaged more than four used retail sales per auction sale since the week ending March 29,” J.D. Power said in a COVID-19 Valuation Services Update on Friday.
“This indicates that franchise dealers are selling down their used retail inventory, much of which was likely purchased previrus, and are reluctant to purchase replacement units,” it said.
Elsewhere in Friday’s update, J.D. Power said used retail sales at franchised dealerships so far this month have fallen 54% year-over-year. Last month, their used sales ended up dropping 38%.
But the rate of decline did slow for the week ending April 19. There was a 44% year-over-year drop that week, versus the 57% decline a week before, according to J.D. Power’s data.
Cox Automotive shared one silver lining in the pre-owned market earlier this week.
“The decline in used-vehicle sales bottomed at the beginning of April and have been improving since,” Cox Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke said in market update video on Tuesday.
“We estimate that used was down 53% year-over-year last week and the trend was better on Sunday,” Smoke said, referring to April 19. “Underlying unique credit application submissions on Dealertrack point to stability or improvement again this week.”
Specifically, a Cox Automotive graph with the daily year-over-year change in retail used vehicle sales shows that sales were down 51.7% on Sunday. That compares to a decline well above 60% to begin the month.
In a weekly newsletter released Friday, Smoke said: “The trends we are seeing are improving every week. Much of the improvement seems to be coming from markets that are recovering more than the national totals show. This week is seeing day by day improvement, with the used market especially seeing accelerating gains.”
In an episode of the Auto Remarketing Podcast, LotLinx CEO shared some positive signs for used cars, as well.
“Bad news is, sales are down 50% in used across the country,” says LotLinx CEO Len Short. “But when you start to drill down to the markets, you'll see that there are a whole bunch — over half — of markets that are doing just fine …
“Dealers are selling cars and consumers intend to purchase and are actually following through with purchases in the markets where they can.”