In addition to a weekly look at price changes on the wholesale market, Ricky Beggs and his Black Book colleagues also revealed Monday that monthly and year-over-year depreciation comparisons appeared near normal.

Beggs indicated that when looking at current 3-year old models, 15 of the 24 vehicle segment types tracked by Black Book had depreciation levels at or below the normal annual depreciation levels of 1.5 percent per month. The Black Book vice president and managing editor explained that since this is a typical time when the market is slightly weaker in demand and value retention, the current trends are supported by a lower supply of vehicles in the marketplace than normal.

Black Book calculated the average change for all 24 segments for the past month was a decline 1.47 percent or a drop of $275.

Beggs went on to highlight the year-over-year comparison based on the current trends of 2010 to those of a strong 2009 market and a volatile 2008 scene. Using respective 3-year-old models, he said the trends going into Nov. 1 resulted in a decline of 0.51 percent (or $89) from 2009 and a drop of 3.22 percent (or $483) from November 2008.

Moving on, he pointed out: "Breaking the vehicles into a slightly different view, the trends by domestic cars, import cars, domestic trucks and import trucks, we see some very similar patterns for the past three years as we saw in the segment type comparisons."

His analysis further noted that domestic and import cars declined for the past month at 1.65 percent and 1.91 percent respectively. In 2009, Black Book reported an increase of 0.26 percent for domestic cars and a modest 0.42 percent dip for the import cars. For 2008, the firm indicated the changes were drops of 2.44 percent and 3.71 percent, respectively, for domestic and import cars.

Black Book indicated trucks are trending slightly better for 2010 with just a 1.03-percent decline for domestic trucks while import trucks are off by 1 percent.

“I see this as an indication that the consumer in the United States still desires vehicles with carrying capabilities and versatile functionality,” Beggs surmised.

One year ago for 2009, Beggs also noted domestic trucks were the weakest in retention for the month, but at a still respectable decline of just 1.07 percent. He added import trucks declined only 0.09 percent for the month.

“During 2008 the market was right in the middle of the gas price volatility and had retention value declining 2.69 percent and 2.57 percent for the domestic trucks and import trucks, respectively,” Beggs explained.

Black Book pointed out the five most volatile segments in percentage change during the past month were the passenger minivans (down 2.54 percent) followed by the premium sporty cars, luxury level cars, prestige luxury cars and gradually down to the entry midsize cars at 2.02 percent for the month.

For the same period in 2009, Beggs and his colleagues determined the segments with the greatest decline were a completely different group of vehicles led by cargo minivans at 2.95 percent followed by the midsize SUVs, full-size vans and full-size SUVs, which settled lower by 1.57 percent.

During the ups and downs of the 2008 market, Black Book spotted significantly higher depreciation levels for the month with cargo minivans leading the way with a decline of 7.63 percent, followed by passenger minivans, compact SUVs and upper mid-size cars.

“During the gas price declines, entry-level cars were getting back to a less than emotional purchase at a decline of 4.36 percent,” Beggs interjected.

When looking at individual vehicle changes, Black Book determined some 3-year-old vehicles had some pretty extreme adjustments during the last month.

On the down side, Beggs reported drops for Chrysler Town & Country, (down 9.20 percent), Infiniti M35 (down 7.11 percent), Lincoln MKX (down 5.88 percent) and Suzuki Forenza (down 5.30 percent) “show volatility on a variety of makes and models.”

Beggs also mentioned not all significant changes were declines in value. Among individual vehicles Black Book found having the greatest rise in the past month included Mazda CX-9 (up 2.18 percent), Honda Ridgeline (up 2.08 percent), Cadillac SRX (up 1.86 percent) and Kia Sedona (up 1.72 percent).

“All of the stronger models fit in the utility or van categories,” Beggs stated.

Even in the overall strength in the market for October to November 2009, Black Book indicated there were some individual vehicles with some greater-than-normal declines in value on a year-over-year basis.

Topping out those trends were the Dodge Grand Caravan Cargo Van (down 6.67 percent), Saturn Vue (down 5.68 percent), Lexus GX470 (down 5.70 percent), Jaguar XK (down 4.36 percent) and Toyota Camry (down 4.21 percent).

Still, Beggs mentioned a few enjoyed some significant upward movements on this comparison with the Subaru Outback (up 5.37 percent), the Mercury Mariner (up 3.42 percent) and the GMC Acadia (up 3.11 percent) leading the charge.

“Because the second half of 2008 presented a very up-and-down market driven mostly by the climb and fall of the price of gasoline, we saw unprecedented levels of change on some individual vehicles,” Beggs explained. “We tracked some vehicles that had monthly depreciation levels at some more normal annualized amounts.”

He went on to mention that a few units that stood out were the Mazda MPV (down 13.08 percent), the Dodge Grand Caravan at (down 12.01 percent), the Kia Sportage at (down 11.86 percent) and the Saab 9-3 at (down 10.26 percent).

As gas prices declined during the fall of 2008, Beggs found some vehicles that aren’t necessarily thought to have very good fuel economy levels were increasing in value for the month. That list included the Range Rover HSE (up 2.68 percent), the Lexus GX470 (up 1.53 percent), the Toyota Tundra (up 1.34 percent), the Cadillac Escalade (up 0.99 percent) and the Nissan Titan (up 0.64 percent).

Furthermore, Black Book determined year-over-year trending also shows a pretty stable to strong performance in the market. Beggs said that this year, nine of the 24 segment types have declined in value by 10 percent or less since Nov. 1, 2009.

“An interesting note is that all nine segments are utility, pickup or van type vehicles,” he interjected.

Within those segments that declined at or above the expected normal annual depreciation, Beggs believes prestige luxury cars (down 20 percent), near-luxury cars (down 17 percent) and luxury level cars (down 17 percent) were not a surprise. However, he thinks entry-level cars (down 17 percent) for now, was a little more interesting considering the current price of gas and the overall economic conditions and struggling consumer confidence.

“This is a segment that is on my watch list over the next few years for retention levels,” Beggs insisted.

The Black Book VP went on to offer his overall assessment of about how vehicle depreciation patterns are behaving.

“The bottom line is the market for this year and even compared to the previous two years is very stable in retention value for the last month, as well as year over year trending,” Beggs began.

"This is another reason that Black Book focuses on reporting the market as it occurs in the auction lanes and through the airwaves from a competitive bidding process,” he continued. “Trying to work off of traditional depreciation expectations just wouldn’t provide timely market results, from an independent source, that is accurate for the dealers, financial institutions, manufacturers, fleets and government agencies.

“Whether you are a buyer or seller, franchised or independent, a financial institution or manufacturer, the interest in the past, current and future trends in the used market is on the top of the list of issues that affect your business and daily decisions,” Beggs went on to say. “With only two months remaining in 2010, there are still plenty of opportunities within the used industry. With the overall trend in value retention in the past month representing a fall seasonal market, the question arises as whether this trend will continue or not and if so, at what point will we see a potential uptick in the market.”

Beggs on the Used Car Market

Beggs also shared in his weekly video report that Black Book editors adjusted an average of 1,930 vehicles each day during the past week. And similar to the previous week, he noted a little more than 7 percent of the adjustments required a raise in the published value.

The overall change of all the adjustments also was similar to the previous week, a drop of $114 according to Beggs.

Black Book discovered car segments continued to be the weaker piece of the market with all 10 segments going down in value with two trends coming out for the first time this year.

Beggs first noticed last week was the first one with four different segments declining in value more than $100 simultaneously. Those four categories were premium sporty cars (down $204), prestige luxury cars (down $181), sporty cars (down $121) and entry mid-sized cars (down $102).

The average change in all 10 car segments also reached a record high for the year at a drop of $105.

Meanwhile, Black Book revealed that all truck segments declined, too, with the average change being a dip of $58. Beggs noticed the average was consistent with the previous week’s decline of $60.

The largest truck price declines for the week were for full-size crossovers (down $148) and for the full-size pickups (down $101). Beggs indicated there were three segments that reflected a stable market as midsize SUVs slid down just $2, full-size cargo vans edged lower by $7 and the full-size passenger wagons dipped $11.

“Let’s don’t forget the time of the year we are in and the typical reactions this normally brings to the market. At least for this year, the overall decline in values each week has been less than most previous years,” Beggs surmised.

“As this week progresses, I hope to see and hear many of the top remarketing and used-car managers at the CPO Forum and National Remarketing Conferences being held in San Diego. If you are in attendance, please look me up and let me know how you see the market,” he continued.

“Also, as the week progresses, please search out an active duty or a veteran military person and thank them for their service on Thursday. Have a great week and we’ll see you on the auction lanes,” Beggs concluded.

To view Beggs’ video report, visit here.