SANTA MONICA, Calif. — The overall picture of the new-vehicle market's health may not actually be as rosy as it seems, analysts with Edmunds.com said Tuesday. 

The site indicated that the seasonally adjusted annualized rate for new-vehicle sales is close to 12 million units through this point of July, but that doesn't mean the industry is recovering, analysts noted.

Surges in July and August are largely reflective of bargain hunters in the market, and the following months likely won't show the same trends. 

"July and August sales may suggest a rebound, but the underlying trends haven't changed. The market mostly consists of deal-seekers today, and July and August are historically among the best months for picking up bargains," explained Jeremy Anwyl, chief executive officer of Edmunds.com.

"The cloud behind the silver lining is that September, October and November will probably be soft, since the old model inventory is largely gone by then, and so are the deals — or so car-shoppers have become conditioned to expect," he illustrated. 

Looking at data from last month, Edmunds.com noted that 2010 model-year vehicles comprised 88 percent of new-vehicle sales.

Analysts said that, usually, by the time November rolls around, new-model-year vehicles (so, in this case, 2011 model-year) make up three-quarters of all new-vehicle sales. And it normally takes until the following June for dealers to completely move all of the old model-year class' vehicles.

Moving on, one Edmunds' analyst also suggested that people are led by "consumer psychology" to think the incentives are currently heavy, but this really isn't the case.

"Inventory is relatively low and automakers are reluctant to cut into profit margins more than necessary," noted Edmunds.com senior analyst Jessica Caldwell. 

"However, brands are advertising big sales events and consumers are responding," she added.

And the automaker that could be gaining the most from this is Nissan, which based on early data, might see a 25-percent month-over-month improvement.

"Nissan has the most aggressive deals in the industry; the company is proving that business can be bought today," Caldwell stated.

Discussing the current state of new-vehicle sales, Edmunds.com senior economist Rebecca Brae stressed that the summer of 2009 was rather unique and its trends were exceptions from the norm. So, comparing this summer to a year ago isn't prudent.

"Remember that comparisons with last summer are not valid," Brae emphasized. "In the first part of July 2009, consumers stood by, anticipating the Cash for Clunkers program, and then later in the month they rushed to dealerships to take advantage. These were not typical patterns."