Expectations for Monthly Used-Car Sales
As the October sales month winds down, used-car sales projections for the period are up.
Auto Remarketing compiled the sale forecasts for October from TrueCar.com, Edmunds.com and CNW Research. While the numbers may vary, the experts agree that sales are headed in a positive direction.
TrueCar, in its October used-car sales projections, estimates that sales from franchise and independent dealerships, as well as private party sales, will rise 10.8 percent year-over-year from October 2011, to 3.22 million. That number also represents a drop of 8.3 percent from September.
The ratio of new-to-used is estimated to be 1:3 for October, TrueCar predicted.
Edmunds, meanwhile, estimated that 3.1 million used cars will be sold in October, representing a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 36.9 million. Those figures compare to September used-car sales of 3.1 million, and an SAAR of 36.8 million.
Finally, CNW Research predicts the year-over-year increase in used-vehicle sales for October will eclipse 8 percent, a number based on its analysis of the first 20 days of the month.
CNW specifically forecasts 3.49 million used sales for the month, up from 3.23 million in October 2011.
In a breakdown of the numbers from CNW, franchised dealers are expected to move 1.33 million used units, with independents selling 1.29 million and private-party sales reaching 873,005 vehicles.
“Franchised dealers who have been taking in a boat-load of trade-ins are on track to a near-12 percent increase in used sales, pushing their year-to-date increase to 5 percent,” said CNW president Art Spinella.
“Independent dealers are showing significant positive gains after a miserable first half with October numbers likely to climb nearly 10 percent,” he continued. “On a year-to-date basis, independents are off around 3.7 percent, but most of that decline was caused by poor inventory availability through July and tight credit.”
As for private-party transactions, the projected sales total for October would be up just 1.1 percent year-over-year.