WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif. -

Although their seasonally adjusted annualized rate has slowed down in April, retail new-vehicle sales are still likely to enter the spring selling season with some steam and continue to beat expectations, according to the latest forecast from J.D. Power and Associates’ Power Information Network and LMC Automotive.

Specifically, it is projected that new-vehicle retail sales will total 894,100 units this month. This sum would be up 8 percent year-over-year when adjusted for selling days. The retail SAAR would end up being 10.2 million units, compared to 11.7 million in March and 10.8 million in April 2011.

“The daily selling rate in April is projected at 37,000 units, which is higher than the 34,000-unit average in the first quarter,” explained John Humphrey, senior vice president of global automotive operations at J.D. Power.

“While April is typically a challenging month to draw comparisons with because the Easter holiday some years falls in April and other years in March, the signs of sustained growth are evident,” he added.

Analysts emphasized however, that the non-luxury side of the market has been carrying much of the growth. In fact, only 10.8 percent of retail sales this month have been from luxury segments, compared to 12.1 percent in April of last year, they noted.

“Despite the slip in market share for the luxury market, growth in overall sales is offsetting the risk to sales volumes,” said Humphrey. “That’s not to say there aren’t risks. Improved content and features in non-luxury vehicles offer good value proposition for consumers returning to the marketplace.

“In addition, there are a number of new and refreshed non-luxury models, and programs such as free maintenance provide consumers with a lower total cost of ownership,” he continued.

Overall, the firms are predicting total new-vehicle sales (including retail and fleet) will reach 1.13 million units for an 11-percent year-over-year uptick. The fleet market is gaining more traction and will likely take 21 percent of the new-vehicle market.

The overall new-vehicle SAAR is projected at 13.8 million units for April, compared to 14.4 million in March and 13.2 million in April 2011.

As for full-year guidance, LMC has upped its forecast and believes there will be 14.3 million total new vehicles (retail and fleet) sold this year. Previously, its forecast was for 14.1 million.

For retail in particular, LMC is now projecting sales of 11.5 million new vehicles, versus its prior forecast of 11.4 million.

A major factor driving LMC upping its forecast was the brisk first-quarter sales rate of 14.5 million new units overall and 11.7 million retail sales.

“Despite the lower selling rate in April, which was expected, we have raised our overall outlook for 2012 based on the high first quarter pace, improving economic variables and credit availability, as well as consumers replacing aging vehicles at a higher rate,” stated Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive.

“However, automotive sales remain vulnerable, as the market faces yet another potential shock due to a fuel and brake line resin shortage caused by a plant explosion in Germany in March,” he continued.