McLEAN, Va. -

Dealers hoping to shore up their supply of luxury used vehicles are likely to be waiting quite a bit longer.

In a recent special report, the National Automobile Dealers Association said the next increase in used luxury supply isn’t expected to happen until 2014.

In fact, used-luxury supply is projected to decline 13 percent this year and then fall 5 percent in 2013. The following year NADA expects to see a 7-percent lift, it explained in the “2012 Special Analysis: Luxury Brand Trends and Used Price Forecast” report.

“NADA anticipates another year and a half of losses before used-luxury supply swings back up again,” officials stated.

“NADA also expects that Audi will be the lone brand to see supply lift in 2012, and that only three other brands — Infiniti, Land Rover and Mercedes-Benz — will see supply grow or go unchanged in 2013,” they added. (Audi’s used supply lift is likely to be 3 percent this year, NADA noted).

However, despite the expectation that it will be a while before used luxury supply gains are realized, NADA did offer one prediction that may be more encouraging for dealers.

“Although the upturn in overall supply is still some ways off, shorter-term off-lease supply is set to improve much sooner,” analysts noted.

NADA emphasized that increases in 36-month off-lease are already being realized, with second-half 2012 numbers projected to eclipse first-half supply by 9 percent. But, it would be wise to take that with a grain of salt, NADA noted.

“Although NADA predicts another year of mild appreciation in 2012, there is downside risk heading into 2013 because the rate of growth for short-term off-lease supply will pick up appreciably,” analysts explained.

“In addition, the level of risk will increase in the latter half of 2013 and early 2014, as overall used supply is expected to reach a trough and begin to rise again,” they added.

And when this growth gets going, it is expected that the run-up in used prices in recent years will be offset a bit.

“That said, the gradual increase in supply will most likely translate into an orderly retreat in prices rather than a sharp, precipitous drop,” NADA noted.

Supply Softening by Brand

Looking at the anticipated overall used luxury supply downturns this year in more detail, NADA said the heftiest of these drop-offs will likely be for Land Rover.

Specifically, supply of vehicles up to five years in age for this brand is expected to fall 24 percent.

Other automakers in the same ballpark include Acura (projected to fall 20 percent), Lincoln (20 percent) and Volvo (24 percent). Five others are also projected to see used supply dip double-digit percentages.

The declines are likely to become much less steep in 2013, with only three projected to show double-digit declines.

Then the following year, all but one luxury brand (Lincoln, down 1 percent) are expected to see their used supply increase. Land Rover is projected to show the sharpest uptick that year, with used supply expected to climb 20 percent.