McLEAN, Va. -

Used-vehicle trade-in values have been relatively high as of late, according to analysis provided by the National Automobile Dealers Association, which said these strong values are among a slew of factors projected to drive stronger new-vehicle sales in coming months.

After touching on the influence of gas prices, economic gains, an aging vehicle fleet and other factors likely to drive to a potentially hot new-car market, NADA indicated: "Another factor expected to boost new-car sales is higher than average trade-in values on used vehicles. According to the NADA Used Car Guide, used-car prices continued to rise in recent months, which have increased the trade-in values for consumers shopping for another vehicle."

NADA chief economist Paul Taylor explained to Auto Remarketing on Wednesday afternoon how higher trade-in values can help new-car sales.

When used trade-in values are high, it can entice the customer to come out and buy a new vehicle, as the consumer would have greater equity in his or her current ride. So, it’s possible that a consumer who would normally have negative equity in the vehicle could be pushed into positive territory because of such high trade-in values, he explained.

Taylor also pointed out that with used-supply tightness, it has led to a "narrowing" of the price space between nearly-new vehicles and new vehicles. In other words, a new vehicle may not be that much more expensive than going for a late-model used version of the same thing.

As such, this is yet another factor that can lead "more traditional used-car customers to buy new, as well," Taylor noted.

Moving along, Taylor also delved further into the various influences projected to push new-vehicle sales upward, including the recent dip in fuel costs. The national average for the price of regular gasoline was $3.83 as of April 27, NADA said, citing AAA.

This marks approximately an 11-cent dip from later March.

“Modest economic growth and declining gasoline prices, low interest rates, more leasing options and aging vehicles that need to be replaced will likely result in higher auto sales over the next several months,” Taylor said.

Discussing the gas price trend in more detail, he added: “If the trend of falling gasoline prices continues as expected, lower gasoline prices will be a key contributor to sales increases in both the new- and used-vehicle markets. Lower gasoline prices will act much like a tax decrease, putting more money in the pockets of consumers.”

Moreover, the increase in new-vehicle supply will push sales along, as well, leading to what is expected to be greater than a 10-percent gain in new-vehicle sales for 2012.

“As inventory levels of small and midsized cars with four-cylinder engines return to normal after the production bottlenecks in the U.S. and Asia, new-car sales will likely increase in future months,” Taylor said.

“Light-truck sales will see a comeback during the second quarter. Falling gasoline prices—assuming there are no oil disruptions in the Middle East—will increase demand for both new and used sport-utility vehicles, crossover-utility vehicles, minivans and pickup trucks,” he continued.

Taylor also emphasized that May’s new-car performance will be a harbinger of what the auto business has in store the remainder of 2012 with dealerships now having their inventory mix completely reloaded.

As for the most recently completed month, data provided by the American International Automobile Dealers Association indicates that new-vehicle sales climbed 2.3 percent year-over-year (unadjusted for business days) in April, with the industry up 10.3 percent through the first four months of the year.

Looking at the Big 3 in more detail, Chrysler had a particularly strong month. It moved 141,165 new vehicles for its best April in four years, as reported earlier this week in Auto Remarketing.

Ford dipped 5 percent year-over-year to 180,350 new-vehicle sales, while General Motors moved 213,387 units and was down 8.2 percent.

Imports Climb Nearly 6 Percent

AIADA’s analysis went on to share more specific data on how import automakers fared. Volkswagen was the highlight of the bunch as it posted its best April in 40 years, AIADA said. It moved 37,525 new vehicles for a 31.5-percent uptick.

Overall, import sales came in at 654,086 units for a 5.6 percent gain, according to an AIADA chart citing AutoData Corp. Year-to-date, they have sold 2.59 million vehicles for a 12.2-percent hike.