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One million electric vehicles on American roads by 2015 — that’s the goal of the Obama administration. But will America reach it?

Despite ramped-up production of plug-in electric vehicles — or PEVs — by U.S. and Japanese automakers over the past two years, it seems the challenge is larger than automakers or policymakers foresaw when it comes to launching new models and expanding sales to mainstream consumers.

Pike Research, in a new report, says although 410,000 PEVswill likely be sold in the U.S. between 2011 and 2015, cumulative American sales won’t reach the 1 million mark until 2018, three years past the stated goal.

The global news is a bit more encouraging, as Pike predicts the second half of this decade will see a surge in PEV sales to more than 1 million vehicles per year in 2017. By 2020, the report said, worldwide sales volumes will reach 1.7 million units annually.

“While it is true that plug-in electric vehicles have seen delays in arriving on the market and have sold in fewer numbers than originally anticipated, we expect strong growth as global PEV sales volumes will nearly triple between 2012 and 2014,” said Pike research director John Gartner. “Automotive companies have made a strong commitment to electric vehicles, and their viability as a transportation platform is no longer in doubt.”

As the electric vehicle market matures, Gartner said regional differences in adoption patterns will emerge. For example, in North America plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are expected to outsell battery electric vehicles (BEVs), but the converse is predicted in Europe and Asia.

OEMs, meanwhile, are cautious and measured in their approach to making PEVs, the study found, as they carefully examine new technologies and consumer preferences. While automakers report optimism regarding long-term prospects for the PEV sector, industry growth will follow market demand.

The full Pike Research report is titled “Plug-in Electric Vehicles,” and offers detailed analysis of the global market landscape for PHEVs and BEVs. For more information, visit www.pikeresearch.com.