The Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers are bullish about their prospects for competing for consumer business in the car-repair industry after releasing multiple annual forecasts and reports last week.

According to the 2026 Auto Care Factbook, the car care industry grew in 2024 and in line with expectations.

Despite continued challenges throughout the economy including inflation, along with uncertainties as new trade and government policies emerged, the organizations said the aftermarket space demonstrated resilience, with total United States light duty aftermarket sales growing by 5.7% in 2024 to $413.7 billion — in line with the previous year’s projections of 5.9%.

Continued steady growth is expected for the light duty aftermarket in 2025 at 5.1%, with the total light, medium and heavy duty automotive aftermarket now expected to be a $664.3 billion industry in 2028, according to the organizations.

Meanwhile, the 2025 Joint Channel Market Size and Forecast 2025-2028 offered a comprehensive review and analysis of the size of the U.S. aftermarket, the forecast for growth through 2028 and the trends in the industry shaping this growth.

The Joint Channel Market Size and Forecast is prepared by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The Joint Channel Market Size and Forecast sheds light on the performance of the U.S. aftermarket in 2024 and provides insightful forecasts for 2025. Notably, the total market size of the light duty aftermarket in 2025 is projected to reach $435 billion and is forecast to grow at above pre-pandemic growth rates through 2028.

The aftermarket is projected to top $500 billion by 2028, just four years after topping $400 billion.

Meanwhile, in the struggle for market share, the service channel retains the 0.6 percentage point gain that it claimed from the dealer channel in 2024. The dealer channel has lost 1.4 percentage points since 2017.

“The automotive aftermarket continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience and growth,” said Paul McCarthy, president of MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers. “The 2025 Joint Channel Forecast predicts consumers will spend $435 billion to repair and maintain their vehicles this year, while future years will surpass pre-pandemic growth rates in dollar terms.

“Consumers and our country need the aftermarket. This study provides our members with valuable insights into market trends and emerging opportunities to support their business decisions,” McCarthy continued.

Bill Hanvey is president and CEO of Auto Care Association.

“The U.S. automotive aftermarket is poised for significant growth, and this report highlights the industry’s strength and resilience in the face of evolving challenges,” Hanvey said. “The Joint Channel Forecast gives our members the insights needed to navigate this dynamic landscape.

“We are proud to provide this valuable resource each year to empower our members in making their strategic business decisions to drive our industry’s growth through 2028 and beyond,” he went on to say.

The Joint Channel Forecast Model report is available to Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers members as a membership benefit.

Auto Care members can access the Joint Channel Forecast report in the 2026 Auto Care Factbook at digital.autocare.org/2026factbook. MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers can access the report at mema.org/JCF.