CARY, N.C. -

The pre-owned vehicle market didn’t get quite as hot a start to the year as it did in 2020. But there are some good signs.

There was a 5% year-over-year decline in January’s used-vehicle sales, according to Cox Automotive, which said the total used SAAR was approximately 38.1 million for the month.

That’s on par with the 38 million SAAR in December and softer than the 40.1 million rate a year ago.

That said, last month was the strongest the used-car SAAR had been since September when it reached 39 million, Cox data shows. The last five months have shown relative stability, as the used-car SAAR has remained between 37 million and 39 million.

This follows a wild first eight months of 2020, as the SAAR dipped as low as 18 million (March) and rose to heights of 43 million (July), according to the data set.

Meanwhile, isolating the used-car numbers to dealer sales — what Cox Automotive determines to be the retail SAAR — also shows sustained stability.

Cox Automotive estimated that the retail used-car SAAR began 2021 at 20.8 million, up from 20.2 million in December and the highest reading since August (21.5 million). A year ago, it was 21.2 million.

In recent months, the retail SAAR has reached 20.7 million for September, 20.4 million in October, 19.6 million in November, 20.2 in December and 20.8 million last month.

The used-car retail SAAR peaked at 22.8 million in July, following the year’s trough of 9.5 million in March.

Looking at other analyses from around the industry, TrueCar said in late January that monthly used-car sales were expected to beat both year-ago and December figures.

TrueCar estimated in a forecast released Jan. 26 that there would be 3.2 million used-car sales for the month, beating January 2020 by 1% and December’s by 10%.

As for where the total sales are headed in the used-car market this year, Edmunds is forecasting 41 million this year, up from an estimated 38.3 million sales in 2020.

TrueCar is forecasting 40.05 million total used-car sales for this year.

Cox Automotive is projecting used sales will climb to 39.3 million this year and 40.2 million next year, before moving down slightly to 39.8 million in 2023.

Cox Automotive estimated that used-car retail sales (those involving a dealer) fell from 20.8 million in 2019 to 19.5 million last year.

But those used retail numbers are expected to climb to 21.2 million sales this year, 22.1 million in 2022 and 22.4 million in 2023.