No one wants to have their vehicle recalled, but recalls have become a fact of life for many car owners.

Recalls have skyrocketed in recent years as automotive technology becomes increasingly complex. In 2023, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration issued more than 350 recalls affecting some 35 million vehicles nationwide.

iSeeCars took a close look at recalls in a study that analyzed NHTSA recall campaign data for vehicles from the past 10 model years to calculate a projected number of recalls for those models over an expected 30-year lifespan.

That analysis showed Porsche and Tesla as the car brands most likely to be recalled — by a wide margin.

Porsche’s recall issues center around two models — the electric Taycan and the Pamanera. The Taycan is at the top of the projected recall list with 70.7 recalls expected during a 30-year span, about 22 times the industry median of 3.2 projected recalls. The Panamera is fourth at 43.1.

Tesla has four vehicles among the top seven in projected recalls: the Model Y (66.9, second), Model 3 (60.7, third), Model S (38.5, sixth) and Model X (37.6 seventh). The top 10 also includes the Lucid Air (40.1, fifth), Lincoln Aviator (26.2, eighth), Genesis GV70 (22.3, ninth) and Kia Telluride (22.2, 10th).

That said, the majority of Tesla’s recalls are over-the-air recalls that can be addressed through remote software updates, which often take place at night while the car is parked. While OTA recalls still represent real safety concerns that need to be addressed, they are much less troublesome and time-consuming to have done.

Excluding OTA recalls, Tesla’s recall totals fall much closer to the industry median, with the Model Y at 11.4 expected recalls, the Model 3 at 8.6, the Model S at 6.7 and the Model X at 5.1, dropping them out of the top 25 among most projected recalls.

“Tesla is ahead of the industry in its ability to improve models through over-the-air updates,” iSeeCars executive analyst Karl Brauer said. “We’re seeing other automakers take this route by increasing their OTA capabilities in recent years. We expect all car manufacturers to eventually leverage OTA updates as effectively as Tesla.”

On the upside, Mercedes-Benz and Lexus are among the least recalled brands, but the model list is topped by the MINI Convertible, which boasts a truly miniscule projection of 0.2 recalls over a 30-year period.

Lexus has the next three vehicles on the list: the ES 300h, RX 450h, NX 300h and ES 250, all at 0.3. Mercedes offers three of the top 10 — the CLA, GLA and GLC in eighth, ninth and 10th, all at 0.4 — and eight of the top 25, one more than Lexus and the most of any brand.

“If you’re hoping to avoid recall hassles, you can significantly improve your odds by choosing the right model,” Brauer said. “A vehicle like the MINI Convertible or Lexus RX 450h has, literally, a fractional chance of being recalled even once, versus more than 60 projected recalls for the Porsche Taycan, Tesla Model Y and Tesla Model 3.

“Even the industry median of 3.2 lifetime recalls sounds much better than the approximately 15-plus projected recalls for all of the cars on the most recalled list.”

The complete report is available here.