Used Prices Predicted to Fall by 2% This Year

After years of unusually high used-car prices due to tight used supply, prices finally began falling in 2013. And the rate of decline is predicted to speed up this year, perhaps turning many consumers’ eyes toward used deals.
According to Edmunds.com’s latest Used Market Quarterly report, expanding supply will serve to push pre-owned prices down as much as 2 percent this year.
Edmunds analysts pointed out this decrease will have an effect on the entire automotive market going forward.
“Many car shoppers might not realize how much the new- and used-car markets feed off each other,” says Edmunds.com senior consumer advice editor Philip Reed. “The boom in new-car leases, for example, is leading to a higher number of lease returns, which adds to the growing inventory of used cars, forcing their prices down.”
When looking back at the fourth quarter of 2013, used-vehicle sales were at 7.8 million, and prices were already lower than what was seen in 2012.
The average retail price for used vehicles sold at franchised dealerships was $15,791, up 0.7 percent from Q3, but down 0.5 percent year-over-year.
By the end of Q4, “though declining, used prices remain elevated over past norms,” analysts noted.
The largest drops in used prices last quarter were seen in the large traditional SUV segment, with prices dropping by 4.5 percent, followed by the large car segment, which declined 3.9 percent.
Edmunds also pointed out a few trends that will most likely pop up this year as a result of lower used-car prices.
One area dealers may feel the impact of lower used prices is in their certified pre-owned operations. The CPO market saw a record year in 2013, and certified sales have been growing even amid high used prices and low supply.
Now, with wholesale used prices on the slide, dealers will be able to offer better, cheaper CPO deals, making certified rides even more attractive to consumers.
Edmunds.com analysts pointed out, “Manufacturers have strengthened these popular CPO programs by offering lower-interest financing and included service plans. Now, with lower used-car prices, these factors combine to make for an even more attractive package.”
And with more supply come more selection. Dealers will simply be able to afford more used cars at auctions at lower prices.
“Some new-car shoppers who don't have enough money for the new car of their dreams could now find what they need on the used-car lot,” Edmunds pointed out in the report.
One caveat to the overall rosy picture of lower used prices is the consequent lower values on vehicle trade-ins. Trade-in price negotiation is often a rough patch of any car deal, and with lower rates dealers may have to go above and beyond to ensure customers leave satisfied.
“When the inventory is high, the value of used cars drops, and that applies to the car you’re looking to trade in on your next car purchase as well,” analysts said.