CARY, N.C. -

It’s coming down to the wire in certified pre-owned.

For 2021 to match the best-ever year for CPO sales (which happened in 2019), dealers will have to sell more than 240,000 certified vehicles this month, according to a Cox Automotive analysis of Motor Intelligence data.

The CPO market has stumbled out of the gate in the fourth quarter, with October sales falling 7% year-over-year and 5% month-over-month, and November sales off 3% year-over-year and 17% month-over-month, Cox said.

Year-to-date CPO sales through the third quarter beat year-ago figures by 11% and outpaced 2019 numbers by 3%, but sales have dropped in each of the last two months.

Through 11 months, there have been 2,561,416 CPO vehicles sold, Cox said, citing Motor Intelligence. That beats year-ago figures by 8%, but is 0.5% off the pace from the record year of 2019.

Not to mention, the 181,079 certified sales last month marked a 24% decrease from November 2019.

“With one month left in 2021, reaching the revised Cox Automotive CPO sales forecast of 2.80 million units – and matching the record-setting 2019 level – is only possible if more than 240,000 units are sold in December 2021,” Cox said in the analysis.

For what it’s worth, there were 231,042 certified sales in December 2020, as the market soared 24% from the month before.

The industry would have to see much higher month-over-month growth this time around for a record CPO year to be reached.

Overall used-car sales up

Despite slowing certified sales, the overall used-vehicle market, however, fared much better last month.

In an update to the data the company shared earlier this month, Cox Automotive estimated  there were a shade under 3 million total used vehicles sold in November, which beat year-ago figures by 3%.

The total used-car SAAR was projected at 39.1 million, beating the November 2020 figure of 38.1 million. The revised October used-car SAAR was 40.7 million, Cox Automotive said.

The company estimated that retail used-car sales — meaning those involving a dealer — climbed 6% from November 2020.

It calculated the used retail SAAR at approximately 21.4 million, compared to 20.2 million a year ago.

The October used retail SAAR was 22.2 million.

“Our used-vehicle sales estimates continue to show gains year over year despite slowing in November,” said Kayla Reynolds, Cox Automotive’s manager of economic and industry insights, in the analysis. “Despite being inventory constrained, the used-vehicle market has been playing a key role in the recovery of the automotive industry.”