RVI Examines Slowdown in Used-Price Gains
STAMFORD, Conn. — Wholesale prices were up sequentially again in June, but with pressure from flat pricing on the new-vehicle side of the market, the slope of the month-over-month used-vehicle price gain slowed significantly from what the average monthly upswing had been from January through May, according to RVI Group.
Specifically, there was a 15.1-percent year-over-year increase in used prices, but just a 0.2-percent month-over-month gain. Used prices have climbed every month in 2010, but June's uptick was "well below" the typical gain from earlier months.
When asked Monday by Auto Remarketing, RVI Group vice president Rene Abdalah attributed the slowdown in used pricing to the flatness on the new side of the market.
RVI's Market Update points to this static used-car pricing as a "sign of things to come," and Abdalah shared what some of those things are expected to be.
In the company's second-quarter report, "We're forecasting prices to decline in the second half of the year, in particular, driven by weakness in new-vehicle prices."
Abdalah said it is expected that the decline in used prices from end of the second quarter to the end of the year will be as high as 2 percent.
Breaking down the data further, the two "volume segments" that showed the heaviest month-over-month price declines in June were small sedans, which were off 1.5 percent, and minivans, which dipped 1.2 percent, according to RVI.
This is where the "great incentives" that manufacturers are offering on the new side come into play, Abdalah said.
He emphasized that "great incentives on the new side drives down prices on the used side."
Furthermore, related to the overall used market, Abdalah stressed that we're not out of the woods as far as the economic recession.
"Consumer confidence is low and even though a used car is a better purchase than new, it's a big purchase. Let's not forget the economy is still in a recession," he emphasized.
New-Vehicle Trends
On the new-vehicle side, prices were static, as well. In May, they climbed less than 0.1 percent from April, according to RVI Group.
"On a seasonally adjusted basis, new-vehicle prices (transaction prices) had a minimal increase from last month (less than 0.1-percent change ) in May when compared to April, which comes after anemic month-over-month increases from February to April," RVI officials noted.
May data indicates that new prices were up just 1.9 percent year-over-year. In December, they were up 5.1 percent from the prior-year period. However, this incline was become less steep each month of 2010.
Looking forward, Abdalah said it is expected that 12 months from now, new-vehicle prices will be 1-percent than they are currently.
This dip is primarily due to competition between automakers, as they have to put on incentives to sell vehicle during times when consumer confidence is low.
"The only way manufacturers will get volume up is by increasing incentives," he noted.