RAMSEY, N.J. -

The TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index — a national survey conducted every month since 2007 to determine the public’s interest in buying or leasing a new vehicle within the next six months — showed intent is softening.

Officials said the June results show an ADI of 55, confirming new-vehicle purchase intent has dropped significantly from its high of 105 in February.

In spite of four months of depressed Auto Demand Index, TechnoMetrica indicated vehicle sales in the U.S. have remained reasonably strong. TechnoMetrica president Raghavan Mayur wondered why and for how long.

Mayur suggested that the likelihood of a significant new-vehicle sales slowdown is likely very close.

“We have been conducting the Auto Demand Index for more than five years and it has been an excellent predictor of new vehicle sales, its correlation is approximately 90 percent. In March we saw the ADI drop precipitously, yet vehicle sales continued apparently unaffected by the public’s decline in demand,” Mayur explained.

“I attribute this to two factors,” he continued. “First, the average car on the road today is older than ever before and some owners decided it made more sense to replace their car rather than invest in a major repair. The second factor is the increased incentive spending by the manufacturers. You need only open a newspaper or turn on the TV and you can’t help but notice the deals offered by even the most prestigious manufacturers."

Ultimately, TechnoMetrica contends lack of consumer demand will result in decreased sales.

In June, analysts determined that just 9 percent of those surveyed indicated they would be very likely or somewhat likely to buy or lease a new vehicle within the next six months, down from 16 percent in February.

“This decline in demand as we approach the industry’s important summer selling season is likely to result in either very weak sales in terms of volume or very high expenses in terms of incentives. Neither will be good for auto manufacturers,” Mayur projected.

The Auto Demand Index survey also asked people which brand of vehicle they would be most likely to buy.

Results revealed Ford was the No. 1 brand named, but its share fell from 21 percent in January to 15 percent in June.

During the same period, Mayar noted, Toyota rallied from 8 percent in January to 15 percent in June, virtually neck-and-neck with Ford. Similarly, Chevrolet declined from 15 percent in January to 11 percent in June, allowing Honda to inch ahead and capture third place at 12 percent.

Mayur added that the increased interest enjoyed by the American brands during 2011 seems to have evaporated during 2012.

“I take no pleasure in telling people that the public is likely to buy fewer cars in the months ahead,” Mayur emphasized, “but to be forewarned is to be forearmed.

“As you might expect, TechnoMetrica believes that good research can help companies to prepare for the future. Based on the past several months of the ADI, this might mean adjusting down production rates and carefully monitoring inventory levels,” he continued.

Mayur is also quick to point out the ADI is a forward looking indicator of consumers’ intent, so it can also help to determine when to raise production rates to accommodate increasing consumer demand.

“Good news is by far the better appreciated aspect of our business,” Mayur pointed out.

The positive demand momentum that the ADI had been showing since August of last was broken in March of this year. Mayur stated his research suggests this was due in large part to the rapid run-up in gasoline prices around that time.

During the subsequent months, he also mentioned, world economic issues and the stumbling U.S. recovery had a dampening effect on people’s confidence to commit to acquiring a new vehicle.

TechnoMetrica’s monthly Auto Demand Index research was initiated in 2007. Each month the company uses Random Digit Dial telephone technology to conduct live interviews with more than 900 respondents, yielding statistically significant data a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.