Toyota Sees Turbulent End to 2011 Fiscal Year

Depending on which financial or performance metric you consider; Toyota Motor Corp. either had a steady 2011 fiscal year or a challenging one.
The automaker revealed Wednesday that on a consolidated basis, net revenues for the fiscal year totaled 18.993 trillion yen, an increase of 0.2 percent compared to the previous fiscal year. Toyota computed its operating income increased from 147.5 billion yen to 468.2 billion yen, while income before income taxes and equity in earnings of affiliated companies was 563.2 billion yen.
The company also said its annual net income increased from 209.4 billion yen to 408.1 billion yen.
However, media reports citing financial analyst estimates looked at Toyota’s fourth-quarter performance only. Since that period ended on March 31 — just 20 days after the Japan earthquakes and tsunami — those indications weren’t so rosy.
Bloomberg’s compilation showed Toyota’s fourth quarter net income shrank 77 percent year-over-year, stemming from ongoing complications related to those natural disasters.
Looking specifically at how Toyota performed to close out its fiscal year, rather than 2011 as a whole, is what sparked commentary by Edmunds.com’s senior analyst.
“Toyota has been socked with one thing after another,” Michelle Krebs insisted. “They had not yet recovered from last year’s unintended acceleration fiasco when the Japan earthquake knocked out some of its production.
“As a result, Toyota posted a lower market share for the fiscal year even as the company spent 26 percent more on incentives compared to the previous year,” she added.
Toyota’s Latest Production Update & Domestic OEM Opportunity
In what should pique the interest of eager franchise dealers, Toyota also offered another production update Wednesday as it discussed its fiscal year performance.
Based on current expected part procurement, Toyota indicated its production recovery timeline is moving up. The automaker now expects to normalize unit production in stages starting in June on a global basis rather than starting in July in Japan and in August outside Japan, as announced on April 22.
However, Toyota said expected production until June 3 will likely remain at previously announced levels. Production, depending on the region and the vehicle model, is expected to be approximately 70 percent of normal.
“TMC is carefully monitoring the situation in each region and for each vehicle model and is every day working its hardest to identify every way to restore production as much as possible,” company officials reiterated.
“However, it is possible that during this period of adjustment in production, reduced production levels may have a significant impact on TMC’s business results,” they continued.
“The estimates above concerning TMC’s future production are based on TMC’s judgment and assumptions based on current circumstances and information currently available to TMC, and may differ from TMC’s actual production situation in the future,” Toyota leaders went on to say.
“If there are any new developments concerning these matters, TMC will display the new information on its website and make additional disclosures as appropriate,” they added.
Despite repeated Toyota pledges to bring production back as quickly as possible, Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds.com’s director of industry analysis, believes the automaker is still going to be negatively affected by the situation, leaving brand dealers at the mercy for potential buyers to go elsewhere.
“With gas prices as high as they are — almost $4 per gallon — Toyota should be in a prime spot to win market share, but the supply simply isn’t there,” Caldwell surmised.
“Toyota shoppers are starting to expand their consideration to other brands,” she continued. “Many Toyota Camry shoppers, for example, are increasingly looking at American products like the Chevy Malibu or Ford Fusion.”
Edmunds.com chief executive officer Jeremy Anwyl elaborated on Caldwell’s points, saying, “With the reversal of fortunes of Japanese automakers, General Motors, Ford and Chrysler have a golden opportunity to reintroduce their vehicles to potential — albeit perhaps still skeptical — car buyers.”
Toyota’s Fiscal-Year Performance
Turning back to what the automaker reported, Toyota calculated its 2011 fiscal year operating income increased by 320.7 billion yen, mainly as a result of a significant increase in vehicle sales in emerging markets and continued cost reduction, including company-wide value analysis activities.
Executives noted factors for the increase include 490.0 billion yen due to marketing efforts and 180.0 billion yen due to cost reduction efforts, while factors for the decrease include 110.0 billion yen due to the impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake.
The automaker determined consolidated vehicle sales for the fiscal year totaled 7.308 million units, an increase of 71,000 units compared to the previous fiscal year.
“We finished the fiscal year with improved operating income of 468.2 billion yen as a result of our efforts on marketing and cost reduction despite a negative impact of around 100 billion yen from the Great East Japan Earthquake,” Toyota president Akio Toyoda pointed out.
“Our business environment continued to be challenging due to Yen appreciation among others,” he added. “Nevertheless, we managed to improve our profit structure even further thanks to the support from all our stakeholders, in particular our customers.”
Toyota’s North American Performance
Looking specifically at its interests in North America, Toyota tallied 2.031 million vehicle sales in the 2011 fiscal year, a decrease of 67,000 units compared to the previous fiscal year.
The automaker reported its North American operating income increased by 254.1 billion yen to 339.5 billion yen, including 27.6 billion yen of valuation gains/losses on interest rate swaps. Operating income, excluding the impact of valuation gains/losses on interest rate swaps, increased by 257.8 billion yen to 311.9 billion yen.
Looking solely at the U.S., Edmunds.com revealed more data points about Toyota’s fiscal-year performance, including:
—Toyota sold 1.8 million vehicles in its 2011 fiscal year, up slightly (0.9 percent) compared to its 2010 fiscal year. But the pace is significantly below the overall industry average (up 12.6 percent) during the same period.
—Toyota lost some market share in 2011, falling from 16.6 percent in 2010 to 15.0 percent in 2011.
—Toyota’s incentives were 26 percent higher in 2011 compared to 2010, even as Edmunds.com said its average True Cost of Incentives decreased gradually in each quarter of 2011, from $2,235 in the first quarter to $2,007 in the fourth quarter.
—Toyota vehicles averaged 51 days to turn in 2011, an increase from 44 days to turn in 2010.
—Quarterly lease penetration fell throughout the fiscal year from 25.4 percent in the first quarter to 21.9 percent in both third and fourth quarters.
Toyota’s Performance in Other Markets
Toyota also outlined how it performed in other parts of the world during the 2011 fiscal year.
These figures were:
—In Japan, vehicle sales were 1.913 million units, a decrease of 250,000 units compared to the last fiscal year. Operating income from Japanese operations decreased by 137.2 billion yen to a loss of 362.4 billion yen.
—In Europe, vehicle sales were 796,000 units, a decrease of 62,000 units, while operating income improved by 46.1 billion yen to 13.1 billion yen.
—In Asia, vehicle sales were 1.255 million units, an increase of 276,000 units, while operating income increased by 109.4 billion yen to 313.0 billion yen.
—In Central and South America, Oceania and Africa, vehicle sales were 1.319 million units, an increase of 174,000 units, while operating income increased by 44.6 billion yen to 160.1 billion yen.
Toyota’s Future Forecasts
Toyota decided not to announce forecasts for consolidated vehicle sales, net revenues and earnings for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2012. The company said more time is needed to complete the examination of production and sales plans due to the impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake.
Meanwhile, the automaker also announced a year-end dividend of 30 yen per share to be proposed at the general shareholders meeting in June.