SANTA MONICA, Calif. — It appears July will end up having the industry's strongest seasonally adjusted annualized rate for new-vehicle sales in almost a year, according to one TrueCar.com analyst.

And with this being achieved in a time of automakers holding back on incentives, these gains speak volumes about consumer demand, he said.

Such a spark in demand could bode well for the market's bounceback as 2010 turns the corner into the second half, TrueCar's Jesse Toprak pointed out Monday.

More specifically, the company projects there will be just more than 1.043 million units sold in July, which would result in a SAAR of 11.8 vehicles for the month.

Furthermore, July's expected unit sales total is a 6-percent year-over-year improvement and almost a 5-percent hike compared to last month (unadjusted).

Automakers have trimmed incentive spending by 1.3 percent from June, as the average incentive on each unit is about $2,831. That figure is up 3.8 percent year-over-year.

"In terms of SAAR, July is likely to be the best month for vehicle sales since the ‘Cash-for-Clunkers' Program fueled August 2009,"  shared Toprak, TrueCar's vice president of industry trends and insight.

"The fact that retail sales are up despite the flat incentive spending indicates a marked improvement in consumer demand, which offers promise for a more robust second-half recovery," Toprak added.

On a manufacturer level, General Motors is projected to have the strongest year-over-year gain of the top seven OEMs with expected sales (195,604 units) climbing 23.2-percent year-over-year.

Toyota is the only one of top seven automakers whose sales are expected to fall from last year. TrueCar is anticipating the Japanese automaker's sales will reach 167,184 units, a 4.4-percent decrease from the year-ago period.

Chrysler's sales, meanwhile, are projected to reach 90,069 units, a 1.3-percent upswing, while TrueCar expects Ford to move 171,651 vehicles, an 8.4-percent upward movement.

Honda's sales will likely jump 4 percent to 119,333 units, with Nissan predicted to hit 75,058 units (up 4.5 percent).

The improvement at Hyundai/Kia is expected to be 14.2 percent, as TrueCar is anticipating sales of 85,501 units for the automaker.

As far as market share, GM is projected command the most (18.8 percent), followed by Ford (16.5 percent) and Toyota (16 percent).

Honda's share (11.4 percent) is predicted to be fourth-highest, with Chrysler (8.6 percent), Hyundai/Kia (8.2 percent) and Nissan (7.2 percent) rounding out the list.

Moving on, Honda showed the highest upswing in incentive spending from a year ago, up 59.5 percent. Toyota was next as far as increases (up 36.3 percent), followed by Nissan (up 18.3 percent) and Ford (up 17.3 percent).

Chrysler's incentive spending fell 11.7 percent from July 2009, while GM's was off 1.4 percent and Hyundai/Kia was down 22.3 percent.

On a month-over-month basis, incentive spending for Chrysler (up 1 percent), Ford (up 0.7 percent), Toyota (up 0.5 percent) and Honda (down 1 percent) was relatively static. GM's incentive spending fell 3.6 percent and Nissan's dipped 3.3 percent.

There was a 2.5-percent increase at Hyundai/Kia.