2 views on wholesale vehicle price behavior in November
The wholesale vehicle market appears fairly healthy entering the final stretch of the year, with prices relatively steady and “robust activity in the auction lanes,” according to reports from market observers.
On Wednesday, Black Book said its Used Vehicle Retention Index came in at 147.8 for November, which beat October by 0.5% and trailed the year-ago period by 3.7%.
The firm also reported strong conversion rates in the auction market.
“Auction activity in November mirrored the strong performance observed in October, maintaining robust activity in the auction lanes, with conversion rates staying in the mid-to-high fifty percent range,” Black Book vice president of data and analytics Laura Wehunt said in analysis around the index.
“Depreciation remained stable, contrasting with the same period last year when it consistently exceeded 1% per week. As we enter the final month of 2024, we are carefully observing potential increases in new car incentive levels, which could have implications for the used market,” Wehunt said.
Over at Cox Automotive, its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index came in at 205.4, which beats November 2023 levels by 0.2%, when adjusting for mix, mileage and seasonality.
Without the adjustment, wholesale prices were down 1.0% from a year ago and down 0.1% month-over-month, Cox said.
“Wholesale values gave back a little bit of the strength we saw earlier in the month but depreciated less than what we normally see in November,” Cox Automotive senior director of economic and industry insights Jeremy Robb said in analysis around the index.
“The Thanksgiving holiday usually slows down the market, and it did this year, although it was very late in the month from a timing perspective. This slowdown caused a slightly sharper decline in values at month-end than usual,” Robb said. “However, tight supply in wholesale and retail markets will support healthy dealer demand through the final month of the year.”
Breaking down the November data by vehicle segment, midsize cars (0.3%) and SUVs/CUVs (0.2%) were up slightly on a year-over-year basis, according to the Cox Automotive report.
Luxury vehicles and compact cars both fell 1.4%, while pickups were down 2.3%.
Non-electric vehicles were static (up 0.1%), while EV prices fell 11.4%, according to Cox.