Cox Automotive provides context to complex August wholesale trends

Cox Automotive experts tried to put some seasonal context when explaining the latest movements of the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index and other parts of the wholesale market.
Analysts indicated that wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 0.4% month-over-month in August. That dip resulted in the latest index reading coming in at 194.5, which represents an 18.8% increase from a year ago.
Now for the context that Cox Automotive included in commentary released on Wednesday in conjunction with the latest index reading.
“The seasonal adjustment caused the monthly decline as the non-seasonally adjusted average price increased 1.4% in August, which left unadjusted prices up 19.9% year-over-year,” analysts said.
“In recent years, August has seen large vehicle value increases, which is why the seasonal adjustment is producing the lower value when the market is seeing real prices rise,” they continued.
Cox Automotive then delved into Manheim Market Report (MMR) values, which produced changing trends in August that resulted in stable prices and then accelerating weekly increases.
Over the past four weeks, analysts determined the Three-Year-Old Index increased at a net rate of 2.1%.
And in August, analysts said MMR Retention — which Cox Autmotive reiterated is the average difference in price relative to current MMR — averaged 100%. However, Cox Automotive acknowledged that on the first weekday of the month, retention sat at 98.8%. But on the final weekday, retention stood at 100.9%.
Analysts said that “means that market prices are now ahead of MMR values when they started the month below.
“The sales conversion rate also increased over the course of the month and ended the month at a level higher than what is typical for August,” they continued. “This indicates that buyers have become more aggressive than the behavior we saw in June and July.”
On a year-over-year basis, Cox Automotive pointed out that all major market segments saw seasonally adjusted price increases in August.
Analysts noted that vans and sport utility vehicles posted the largest year-over-year jumps at 27.1% and 19.0%, respectively.
Furthermore, on a month-over-month comparison, Cox Automotive said the compact car and pickup segments sustained value declines, while the remaining segments generated “modest” price rises.
Finally, Cox Automotive closed the index commentary with a look at rental-risk pricing.
Analysts indicated the average price for rental-risk units sold at auction in August rose 18% year-over-year and 13% month-over-month.
And dealers looking to find a low-mileage unit in the off-rental lane probably aren’t having much success since Cox Automotive said the average mileage for rental risk units in August came in at 70,000 miles. That’s up a whopping 78% compared to a year ago, but the figure is actually down 20% month-over-month.