Kontos: Wholesale vehicle prices have moderated, but still ‘historically high’

Signs of autumn are abound, what with college football kicking off and pumpkin-flavored beverages now appearing in coffee shops and grocery stores.
But it's still August, still summer and still ridiculously hot.
You might say the same about the wholesale vehicle market.
Used-vehicle prices have now declined sequentially for two straight months, but they’re beating year-ago figures by more than 6% and outpacing pre-COVID levels by more than 24%.
That’s according to the latest report from KAR Global chief economist Tom Kontos, which showed that wholesale values dipped month-over-month in both June and July. The Kontos Kommentary indicates that wholesale prices “appear to have moderated to what are still historically high levels well into August.”
Specifically, the average wholesale price was $14,250 in July, the report said. That’s down 2.7% from June, but up 6.5% year-over-year and up 24.4% from July 2019.
By segment type, car values came in at $10,620 in July for a 1.8% month-over-month drop, according to the KAR data. However, that beats year-ago figures by 6.8% and exceeds July 2019 by 22.7%.
Truck values averaged $16,767 last month, down 3.1% from June. That is still 6.5% stronger than July 2020 and 23.1% higher than July 2019.
“All segments except full-size vans and compact pickups, which are small segments volume-wise, showed month-over-month declines in average prices,” Kontos said in the analysis.
Those two segments also showed the most year-over-year growth, with full-size vans up 22.7% and compact pickups up 20.8%. Beyond that, sporty cars were up 17.2% from July 2020. Luxury SUV/CUV prices were up 11.2%.
Aside from full-size cars (down 1.1%) and midsize CUV/SUVs (down 1.0%), the remainder of the segments in KAR's analysis showed year-over-year increases in the single-digit percentages.
KAR further dissected the data by holding sale type, vehicle age, mileage and model class segment. Based on criteria that would model off-lease vehicles, KAR found that midsize cars showed 27.4% year-over-year growth and 39.3% growth from July 2019. Meantime, midsize SUVs/CUVs also were “up significantly,” with prices rising 30.6% year-over-year and 34.5% from July 2019.
KAR took that same criterion and showed in a graph how average prices have trended in major vehicle types week by week through Aug. 15.
“After rising rapidly through the spring months, price increases have generally moderated to an overall level of nearly 40% above pre-COVID averages,” Kontos said. “Pickup trucks have seen the greatest price moderation.”