LAWRENCEVILLE, Ga. -

Fueled in part by several vehicle segments showing value rebounds, Black Book reported on Wednesday that its Used Vehicle Retention Index for January ticked up month-over-month, prompting experts to declare spring’s arrival in the lanes (albeit not in the chilly, post-Groundhog Day outdoors).

With values for two particular vehicle segments rising more than $80 during the closing week of January, Black Book said its first index reading of 2021 came in at 128.9, edging up by 0.1 points from the December mark of 128.8.

“With the expected improvements in used-retail demand and shortages of new inventory, the overall used wholesale market was strong in January,”, Black Book senior vice president of data science and analytics Alex Yurchenko said in a news release that accompanied the latest index update.

“The spring market came earlier than before this year with wholesale prices actually increasing during the last week of January,” Yurchenko continued. “Full-size pickup trucks remained strong with the index for that segment increasing by 3.2 points. Early tax season preparations seemed to drive sub-compact and compact car segments’ indices up by 0.8 and 2.9 points, respectively.” 

Released on Tuesday, the latest Market Insights from Black Book showed week-over-week gains not only for those full-size pickups as well as compact and sub-compact cars. But analysts also spotted notable week-over-week rises for full-size cars (up $89) and subcompact luxury crossovers (up $83), too.

While volume-weighted information showed overall truck values stayed flat week-over-week, Black Book reported that overall car values rose 0.23% when using that comparison. Analysts elaborated even more about a specific part of the car world.

“Sporty cars, both mainstream and premium, saw signs of spring this past week with increasing values,” they said in the latest Market Insights. “Premium sporty cars have had only minimal decreases over the past 14 weeks, but sporty cars had 22 weeks of declines for a 0.51% average rate of weekly change.

“Traditionally, the sporty car segment begins to show strengthening in February,” analysts added.

Whether dealers are scouring the lanes for those sporty cars or cost-efficient options for budget-conscious buyers, Black Book reported that the auction hammer has been active.

“Sales rates have been on a continual climb in recent weeks, but last week there was a small decline as sellers held firm to floors,” analysts said.

“The decline in sales rates was not due to a lack of interest by buyers,” they continued. “The bidding activity on the lanes was very active last week with some deals being passed over as little as $300.”

Also playing a role in the latest value movements is volume, which Black Book recapped in its latest Market Insights, as well.

“Wholesale volume has shown improvement to start the year, but this past week overall available inventory offered for sale showed signs of once again declining,” analysts said. “However, levels are still above the shortages seen last summer. Remarketers are estimating that their available inventory in the pipeline for Q1 is lower than normal.

“With remarketers knowledge of limited supply in the pipeline and increased retail demand, they are raising their floors and planning to hold firm,” analysts went on to say.

What happens in the coming weeks will be recapped in the next Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index, which is calculated using Black Book’s published wholesale average value on 2- to 6-year-old used vehicles, as percent of original typically equipped MSRP. It is weighted based on registration volume and adjusted for seasonality, vehicle age, mileage and condition.

The index dates to January 2005 when Black Book published a benchmark index value of 100.0 for the market.

During 2008, the index dropped by 14.1% while during 2016, the index fell by just 6.4%. During 2011, the index rose strongly from 113.3 to 123.0 by the end of the year as the economy picked up steam and used vehicle values rose higher.

The index continued to remain relatively stable, rising slightly until May 2014 when it hit a peak of 128.1.

To obtain a copy of the latest Black Book Wholesale Value Index, go to this website.