LAWRENCEVILLE, Ga. -

Wednesday marks the opening day of December, so Black Book took the opportunity to give auctions and dealerships a reference point for how the final month of the year might unfold in the wholesale market.

Analysts had the opportunity to offer this assessment because, “activity on the lanes slowed down last week, with the Thanksgiving holiday reducing the availability of inventory and number of buyers actively bidding.

“Some consignors are known to save their inventory for after the holiday, so we anticipate an increase in volume on the lanes this week,” Black Book continued its newest installment of Market Insights, released Tuesday.

Despite the lighter auction action, analysts indicated overall wholesale prices still ticked higher during the week that closed on Saturday. Values rose another 0.18%.

Reinforcing the odd times now happening, Black Book pointed out that the average decline during the same weeks in 2017 through 2019 was 0.52%.

On a volume-weighted basis, analysts indicated overall car segment values increased +0.13% with prices for compact cars (up 0.26%) and full-size cars (up 0.25%) leading the way.

After eight straight weeks of increases, Black Book said values for sporty cars edged 0.05% lower. During the same week in 2019, prices for those popular summertime models softened by 0.76%, according to the latest report.

Looking next at trucks, Black Book reported that its volume-weighted data showed overall truck segment values increased 0.21%.

The workhorses of the commercial world continue to pace the truck gains with prices for full-size vans rising another 1.37% and values for compact vans jumping 1.21%. Prices for those compact vans now have climbed during 41 of the past 43 weeks.

Also of note, Black Book said values for full-size pickups increased for the 11th week in a row, compiling an average weekly increase of 0.23%.

Black Book began its December forecast by first examining the status of current dealership inventory.

“As we head into the last month of the year, used retail listings have stabilized around 17% below where we started the year,” analysts said. “Generally, at this time of year, used retail listing volume is expected to increase as new models are launched and incentive spend increases.

“With significantly reduced new inventory volume and decreasing used inventory, it is no surprise that there are fewer retail listings available overall,” they added.

Black Book then turned its attention to the wholesale space, projecting what used-car managers might see.

“December is typically a busy month in the lanes with sellers trying to offload unnecessary vehicles and buyers trying to stock up on inventory in time for the holidays. While some new inventory is trickling in from manufacturers, used inventory will still play a pivotal role as we close out calendar year 2021,” analysts said.

“Inventory scarcity has continued to cause bidding wars across the country among franchise dealers, independent dealers and rental companies. Wholesale values and floors were on the upswing before Thanksgiving and may pick back up again soon, now that that holiday has passed,” they continued.

“The weekly estimated average sales rate declined to 67% this week, after remaining stable at the 70% mark for the past two weeks in a row. This time last year, the estimated average weekly sales rate was around 54%, so while floor prices have continued to rise, buyers continue to purchase vehicles at auction at a higher rate,” Black Book went on to say.