CARY, N.C. -

After three straight months of sequential declines following May’s all-time high, wholesale vehicle prices have started September with a month-over-month gain.

That’s according to a mid-month reading of the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which was at 201.4.

Adjusted for mix, mileage and seasonality, wholesale prices in the first half of September were up 3.6% from August.

While values have remained near historic highs and continue to beat year-ago figures, they had softened month-over-month this summer.

Manheim’s price index reached a record high of 203 in May, but fell to 200.4 in June. The index dropped to 195.2 in July and 194.5 in August.

But in September’s wholesale market, “prices reversed course,” Cox said.

Not to mention, the mid-month index reading beats mid-September 2020 by 24.9%, the Manheim report indicates.

And all six of the market segments included in the Manheim analysis show double-digit-percentage year-over-year gains, with five stronger than 20%.

That includes vans, whose prices through Sept. 15 were up 40.7% year-over-year. Next were SUV/CUV prices, which climbed 26.1%, followed by midsize car prices, which were up 23.4 %.

Compact car prices were up 22.9%, luxury cars were up 21.7% and pickup prices were up 16.8%.

Turning to Manheim Market Report numbers, there was a “strong increase” there, too. The Three-Year-Old MMR Index was up 2% cumulatively in the first two weeks of the month.

“Over the first 15 days of September, MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to current MMR, averaged 100.8%, which indicates that valuation models are not keeping pace with the increase in market prices,” Manheim said in the index report.

“The sales conversion rate increased in the first half of September relative to August and is at an elevated level for this time of year,” it noted. “The latest trends in the key indicators suggest wholesale used vehicle values will likely see further gains in the days ahead.”

And that’s on top of what’s already an elevated price situation on the retail side of the used-car market.

A Data Point report released Tuesday by Cox Automotive shows that average used-car listing prices were at $25,829 at the end of August. That was a 24%-year-over-year increase, a 34% hike over August 2019 and a record high, Cox said.

Dealers had 2.35 million unsold used vehicles on their lots at the end of last month, down from 2.4 million a month earlier, according to the Cox data.

The August supply figure beat year-ago figures, but was 17% softer than the end of August 2019.  

“The lack of supply in the new market is also affecting the used market,” Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough said in the report.

“Used sales have slowed in recent weeks due in large part to the lack of supply in the new market,” he said. “Prospective buyers unable to purchase a new vehicle and not trading in their existing vehicle limits the availability of used products at dealers.”

Chesbrough added: “This situation is likely to persist until the new-vehicle supply crisis passes.”

In a separate analysis from last week, Edmunds found that used-car transaction prices in August showed a 3.4% month-over-month drop, coming in at $26,308.

Trade-in values fell 1% sequentially, coming in at $21,058.

However, Edmunds hinted that the market may not be done with prices climbing back up.

“Minor percentage decreases aren’t typically a marker of big news, but considering the meteoric rise we’ve seen in used prices and trade-in values over the last few months, it’s safe to say that this is a notable milestone,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ executive director of insights, in a news release.

“The used market may have finally hit a peak in August, but the industry is still facing a long and uncertain road ahead. New vehicle inventory is still very thin due to the global chip shortage, and challenges created by the Delta variant are placing further pressure on production timelines. The supply chain is so fragile at this point that it’s possible that we could see used vehicle prices and trade-in values creep up again.”