CARY, N.C. -

It appears that used-vehicle prices have finally peaked. But don’t expect them to come down too much — the year is likely to end with prices still near record highs.

According to a Used Market Update report from J.D. Power released Thursday, there was a 0.2% decline in wholesale prices for the week ending June 20.

That snapped a 24-week streak of used-car price gains that included an “exceptional” 12-week stretch of prices averaging a 2.2% increase each week, J.D. Power said.  The rise in used-car prices began tapering off the week ending May 23, following that aforementioned 12-week period.

But even though prices fell the week June 20, they’re still quite high historically.

Year-to-date, wholesale prices are up close to 30% over the same period of 2020. And compared to where they were in December, wholesale prices have climbed 39%, the company said.

And look for them to remain elevated the rest of the year. In fact, J.D. Power anticipates year-end prices to climb as high as 29% year-over-year.

“After increasing for 24 consecutive weeks, wholesale auction prices peaked in June, attaining their highest level on record and have now begun to gradually decline,” Jonathan Banks, vice president of J.D. Power Valuations Services, said in a separate analysis from the company.

“Despite the recent cooling, the used market remains incredibly strong and, at the end this year, prices are expected to be up by approximately 29% on a year-over-year basis. The used market’s continued strength is driven primarily by the expectation that used supply will remain a challenge and that new-vehicle market challenges will remain in place for the foreseeable future.”

The installment of Black Book’s Market Insights looking at the same week found that car segments had their slowest increase in 17 weeks, with trucks have their slowest increase in 15.

“Wholesale prices remain strong. However, there are signs of softening in the market,” analysts said in the report.

On the residual value side of the market, Eric Lyman, who is vice president at the ALG piece of J.D. Power, had this to say in an analysis: “ALG has recognized six key drivers contributing to record used-vehicle values in 2021. They are — in order of largest-to-smallest effect — used supply declines; economic recovery; pent-up demand; reduced incentive spend; new-vehicle production issues; and elevated housing prices.

“These drivers are fueling an expected gain of 11 percentage points in original MSRP among used 3-year-old vehicles in 2021 when compared with Q4 2020,” Lyman said. “However, only two of these drivers — used supply declines and reduced incentive spending — will have a long-term effect when 2021 model-year vehicles return to the secondary market in 2024.

“Despite the erosion of influence among many key drivers affecting current used values, ALG is still forecasting that long-term residual values will exceed pre-pandemic levels across all super segments. Our current forecast calls for an increase of ~2% of original MSRP among 3-year-old vehicles returning to market in 2024 versus. 2019.”

Nick Zulovich contributed to this report.