Don’t let multiple winter storms and snow piled high on roadsides fool you.

The wholesale vehicle market is showing the slightest signs of spring. And vehicle values are increasing faster than expected.

That’s according to industry observers releasing their monthly insights on used-car values, which show an earlier and quicker rise in what vehicles are fetching in the wholesale market.

In fact, one wholesale price index reached its highest level in almost two-and-a-half years.

Starting with Black Book’s analysis, the Used Vehicle Retention Index came in at 141.7 for January, which is down 3.1% from a year ago but up 1.0% month-over-month.

“January’s harsh winter weather didn’t stop the used-car market from hinting at spring,” Black Book vice president of data and analytics Laura Wehunt said in a report. “We saw values rise by the end of the month, earlier than we’d normally expect.

“Even without another rate cut from the Fed, there’s growing confidence that tax refunds will bring buyers back into the market,” Wehunt said.

Over at Cox Automotive, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index came in at 210.5, which marked a 2.4% increase from January 2025, when adjusting for mix, mileage and seasonality. It also climbed 2.4% month-over-month, Cox said.

Typically, the month-over-month change is a decline of 0.2%, based on the long-term average. Unadjusted, wholesale values  rose 2.5% from January 2025 and climbed 2.7% from December, Cox said. That compares to a long-term average of 0.4%.

“We had planned for a stronger January from a pricing perspective, but wholesale values moved even faster than we expected on the back of strong retail demand, driving the MUVVI to its highest reading since September 2023,” Cox Automotive chief economist Jeremy Robb said.

“With tax refund season officially starting last week, we are expecting that more consumers will be getting refunds – and that the size of those refunds will hit a new record,” he said.

“Those factors should help consumers punch the ticket on some big-ticket purchases, even as we have seen a more muted impact on market interest rates in the face of three Fed cuts since September. The spring bounce for wholesale markets looks like it started early this year, and stronger tax refunds and lower used supply may keep it running for longer than typically seen.”