SANTA MONICA, Calif. -

There has been a lot of talk, as new automotive sales continue to increase, about what the overall sales number will be for this year. TrueCar forecasts total sales for the year will reach 16.4 million units — the best since 2007 — and could possibly reach toward 17 million units in 2015 if economic conditions continue to improve.

And as some predict that the demand for automotive products has nearly reached its peak, John Krafcik, TrueCar’s president, believes all manufacturers still have quite a bit of room for improvement. Presenting at the Automotive Press Association last week in Detroit, Krafcik outlined four key areas, coined as “super segments,” which cover four specific revenue streams associated with four product categories.

The four segments – mass-market cars, mass-market utilities, pickup trucks and premium brand vehicles (all types) – are what Krafcik believes manufacturers should be focusing on, because, according to him, no one is dominant in all four areas.

“For individual automakers the revenue mix across the four super segments varies considerably,” Krafcik said. “Some are overly reliant on mass-market cars – notably Volkswagen Group and Hyundai-Kia – while others are significantly over-weighted in pickup and utility segments, such as Fiat Chrysler. Remarkably, no automaker has a revenue mix even close to the consumer-driven industry mix.”

Krafcik recommends that those evaluating the industry should, instead of just looking at units sold, focus on the revenue streams. The market, based on TrueCar’s data, is forecasted to generate $521.5 billion in revenue by the end of the year, compared to $292 billion in 2009. Here are several other key observations, according to the company:

  • From 2009 to 2014, total U.S. auto industry revenue growth of at least 79 percent is outpacing the 58 percent unit growth forecast for the same period.
  • That trend should continue into 2015 as economic growth continues and the price of fuel remains relatively stable.
  • Looking solely at industry volumes, without factoring in the richer margins and revenue generated by three of the four vehicle segments, masks how truly robust the industry is.
  • During the 2009 to 2014 period, pickups and mass-market utilities, which deliver higher transaction prices and margins than mass-market cars, increased their share of industry revenue to 50 percent from 44 percent.
  • Industry trends point to stabilization in revenue mix, though not unit mix, comprised of 30 percent mass-market car (“three-box'' vehicles); 30 percent utility (“two-box'' vehicles); 20 percent pickup; and 20 percent premium vehicle.

What do all the numbers suggest? According to Krafcik, there is a significant economic opportunity for each of the major players in the automotive industry to broaden their portfolios and potentially realign themselves with other manufacturers, whether it be through mergers, acquisitions, partnerships, etc. to create more “revenue-balanced OEM groups.”