Dealers should expect a sharp increase in late-model used-vehicle supplies along with significant decreases in used-vehicle values over the next couple of years.                                      

That’s according to the National Automobile Dealers Association, which hosted its Economic Quarterly press briefing on Monday to recap the first half of the year and set its gaze forward.

The NADA’s current forecast estimates that the supply of late-model vehicles, which it specifies as zero- to 5-year-old vehicles, will be 28 percent higher by 2017 than at the end of 2014.

The association’s projection, based on the expectation of increased used-vehicle supply and pressure from new-vehicle sales, would result in a 4.5-percent decrease in used-vehicle prices per year in 2016 and 2017.

Larry Dixon, senior manager of market intelligence for NADA Used Car Guide, said that used-vehicle prices have remained relatively stable up until now despite the ever-present pressure from new-vehicle sales and increased supply of late-model vehicles. He expects the decline in used prices to be relatively tame for the rest of the year.

“NADA forecasted a slight decline of 0.3 percent for used prices of vehicles up to 8 years in age through the first half of 2015, so the year’s result so far has essentially played out as we have expected,” Dixon said. “We expect used-vehicle prices to decline by 2 percent over the second half of 2015 compared to levels recorded year-to-date.”

These comments followed NADA chief economist Steven Szakaly’s review of the new-vehicle industry. On that front, NADA increased its sales expectations for 2015 from 16.94 million to 17.17 million units. Szakaly expects 2016’s results to be a peak; he forecasts a total of 17.62 million new cars and light trucks will be sold next year.

“Purchases and leases of new cars and light trucks will continue as a stronger overall economy continues to drive demand,” Szakaly said. “While we’ve had a slower-than-normal recovery from this recession, we are seeing the sixth consecutive year of new light vehicle sales growth.”