The advent of more cooperative forms of mobility will take place in 2020, as 107 million connected cars on the road will begin sharing data messages about road and traffic conditions to allow other connected vehicles to anticipate hazards and improve traffic flow.
That is according to ABI Research smart mobility and automotive analyst Maite Bezerra and is one of “54 Technology Trends to Watch in 2020” according to an ABI white paper.
Among the other trends mentioned in the white paper are that micro-mobility methods of transportation, such as e-bikes and scooters will take off and that self-driving trucks won’t make headway, “despite making headlines.”
The white paper mentions 35 trends that it says will shape the technology market and 19 others that appear “less likely to move the needle over the next 12 months” even though they have attracted “huge amounts of speculation and commentary,” according to ABI.
Included among the trends are “what won’t happen in 2020,” and one of those is SAE level 4, vision zero and shared mobility.
"At one point, 2020 seemed a distant target, a long-term horizon over which the technology trends that have dominated the automotive scene for the last 10 years — electrification, connectivity, autonomous driving — would all have harmonized to deliver safer, more efficient transportation for all,” ABI Research smart mobility and automotive principal analyst James Hodgson said in a news release.
He continued, “It’s not going to happen in 2020, or much before 2025.”
But ABI notes “good reason for optimism,” stating that Complementary Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor (CMOS) image cameras made Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems affordable. ABI added that “DL approaches and powerful computing” made autonomous vehicle software development seem feasible. Uber gave hope of a transportation future that is free from widespread car ownership.
However, 2020 begins with road accident casualties increasing, OEM spending on autonomous technologies contracting, connectivity enabling the same legacy infotainment applications, and ride-hailing operations facing important questions over profitability, ABI said.
The overall Connected, Autonomous, Shared, and Electric, or CASE, vision is still compelling, ABI said, adding that “most OEMs are staying the course” and hoping for 2025 or 2030 for the transition to connected, autonomous, and electrified mobility.
And on the previously mentioned trend of cooperative mobility, ABI says that the first phase will be low-bandwidth, high-latency communication through the long-term evolution network “between connected cars and data ingestion platforms” that will enable applications like ice and oil hazard warnings and lane-level traffic assistance.