CARY, N.C. -

Used-vehicle sales climbed more than 4% last month, but the market may only be warming up.

Analysis from Cox Automotive indicates there was a tax refund-fueled “liftoff” in the used-car market during the first week of March, with retail sales climbing more than 30%.

“The seasonal sales jump has been slower to happen as a result of the slower refunds, but week 10 delivered,” Cox Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke wrote in the latest Smoke on Cars report.

He added: “After liftoff has been achieved, used-car sales usually remain at peak levels of activity for 7 to 9 weeks. That would suggest that this year’s peak demand would likely last until mid- to late-April.

“However, this year’s market could be impacted by COVID-19 fear and declining consumer confidence,” Smoke said. “Through last week, however, there is no sign of used-vehicle demand seeing an impact from the virus.”

The used-car sales market was already quite strong to begin the year.

February showed a 4.4% hike in total used-car sales volume, according to Cox Automotive data shared in the latest Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index report.

The estimated total used-car SAAR for the month (39.8 million) bested both year-ago (39.4 million) and January figures (39.5 million).

Same goes for what Cox Automotive considers to be the used retail SAAR, which only includes sales originating at dealerships.

That figure (21.2 million for February) beat year-ago (19.8 million) and January (20.7 million) figures.

It was a rather auspicious start to 2020 in January, particularly for the certified pre-owned segment of the used-car market.

A Cox Automotive Data Point report, citing Motor Intelligence, indicates there were 215,959 certified sales in the year’s first month.  Not only was that an 8% year-over-year gain, it’s the best January for CPO sales since 2010, Cox Automotive said.

In an earlier Manheim index report, Cox Automotive estimated there was a 2.8% year-over-year increase in total used-vehicle sales during January. The estimated total used-car SAAR for the month was 39.5 million. A year earlier, it was 38.8 million. In December, it was 40.0 million.

The estimated retail used-car SAAR in January (20.7 million) beat prior-year (19.8 million) and prior-month (20.1 million) figures.