CARY, N.C. -

The impact from the upswing in off-lease volume isn’t likely to be nearly as dramatic as some have feared, says a report released Friday by Scotiabank.

And 2016 has started off with strong demand in both the new- and used-car markets.

A summary of the Scotiabank Global Auto Report said there has been a 3-percent lift in new-car sales this year, and used-car demand is up 6 percent year-over-year through March, more or less keeping pace with the growth rates of recent years.

Calling the off-lease volume gains expected to hit the market in coming years “modest by historical standards,” Scotiabank points out that it equates to just a 1-percent hike in total number of used cars for sale each year.

And helping to mitigate the increased supply is strong vehicle affordability, income and demand gains, and low interest rates.

“Despite record profitability for the two largest North American automakers in early 2016, concern about vehicle pricing and the U.S. sales outlook remains high among investors and many analysts. Auto manufacturers and parts suppliers are trading at multiples well below historical averages and at a large discount to the overall S&P500,” Carlos Gomes, senior economist and auto industry specialist at Scotiabank, said in the summary.

The concern is that more off-lease volume has put downward pressure on used-car prices, which could result in softer new-car prices and sales.

“However, we do not see any evidence of this occurring. In fact, demand for both new and used vehicles continues to strengthen in the United States, with average transaction prices for new models climbing to record highs in early 2016,” Gomes said.

More on new-car market

A similar analysis from TechnoMetrica also has a strong outlook for new-car sales, though perhaps not as vibrant as recent years.

Findings from the company’s latest Auto Demand Index survey suggest that thanks to low interest rates and gas prices as well as labor market improvements, new cars will still sell at a nice clip, just a bit slower.

With the monthly ADI survey, more than 900 U.S. adults are asked this question: How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next six months?

April’s ADI reading was 106, which was a 5-percent decline. The index had climbed for three straight months. That said, last month was the fourth straight reading above 100, leading TechnoMetrica to believe that “purchase intent will maintain its positive trajectory in the coming months.”

The company also pointed out that 18 percent of Americans in April planned to buy a new car within the next six months, which was steady with the March level.

(Explaining how the ADI works, the company said that the “index has been set to an initial value of 100 based on demand levels between February 2007 and April 2007, when annualized sales registered at 16.3 million units.”)

“Consumers are less optimistic regarding the current state of the U.S. economy, due to such factors as the recent volatility in the stock market and growing fears of another recession,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica, in a summary of the report. 

“However, positive developments surrounding the auto industry, including relatively low gasoline prices, will continue to drive new-vehicle sales upwards, though at a slightly lower rate than what we have been witnessing lately,” Mayur added.