New-vehicle transaction prices are expected to reach a record level this year and only go higher in 2017, says Edmunds.com.

And the trends driving this pricing peak are likely to have some impact for older vehicles.

In analysis released Thursday, Edmunds said the transaction price on a new-car will hit $34,077 for the year. This all-time high is up 2.7 percent from 2015 and up 12.6 percent from five years ago.

And what’s more, 2017 is expected to show an average transaction price of $35,000.

The key driver?

Light trucks.

“Although automakers have ushered in a crop of smaller, lower-priced vehicles, strong market demand for SUVs and trucks have caused overall prices to rise,” Jessica Caldwell, who is Edmunds executive director of industry analysis, said in a news release. “This is yet another example of how trucks and SUVs are driving change in the market and influencing every part of the industry.” 

Trucks are currently commanding a 62-percent share of the market, Edmunds said, and are usually pricier than passenger cars. They also tend to have more options.

Count leasing — which has a 31 percent penetration rate in the new-car market, a rate likely to grow next year —  as part of what’s helping drivers afford the pricier truck.

“The flip side of this trend is that higher prices are putting a bit of a squeeze on the market for lower-cost, used vehicles,” said Caldwell. “Our data shows that more people are looking for affordable older vehicles than are actually sold, driving up values and demand.”

Trucks' muscle

Trucks, in general, are lifting used-vehicle prices, too. Their wholesale values were up 5.2 percent year-over-year in November, compared to a 4.1-percent decline for car values, according to the latest analyst from KAR Auction Services chief economist Tom Kontos.

Overall, wholesale prices were up 2.3 percent in November, according to KAR.

“Trucks continue to drive overall average wholesale prices upward, while car price softening more directly reflects supply growth for the used-vehicle market in general,” Kontos said in the report.

Speaking of supply, there have been 4.24 million vehicles up to 8 years old sold at auction this year (through 11 months), which is a 6.8-percent increase, according to the latest Guidelines report from NADA Used Car Guide.

Auction sales volume for late-model vehicles (cars up to 3 years old) have climbed more than 11 percent, NADA UCG said.

And likely driven by an off-lease surge, there has been a 31.7-percent increase in 2013 model-year sales volume at auction.  

Within the late-model class, the top eight increases in volume have been truck or utility segments, with gains ranging from 17 percent to 33 percent. 

Though NADA Used Car Guide found that wholesale prices of vehicles up to 8 years in age were softer than expected last month, trucks were on the stronger end of the scale.

Incentive issue?

Not only are new-vehicles prices high, so are the incentives being used to help move those cars. According to Edmunds data cited in the Kontos report, average incentives last month were higher than $3,000 for the first time in seven-and-a-half years. They were also up 37 percent from November 2015.

“A new threat to used-vehicle prices seems to be arising from increased new-vehicle incentives, which have been relatively benign through this cycle of price softening, but which we have warned might become more of a factor going forward as a result of plateauing new-vehicle sales,” Kontos said.