Edmunds is calling for 3 million used-car sales this month, and while that would be lower than what the market reached in October, the company is calculating that the seasonally adjusted annualized rate for November will actually be higher.
Specifically, Edmunds is projecting a 39.8 million used-car SAAR for November, compared to 39.6 million last month.
This is despite monthly sales dipping from 3.3 million in October to the 3.0 million forecasted for this month.
Meanwhile, in an Industry Update released earlier this month, Cox Automotive said there was an estimated year-over-year increase of 0.3 percent in used-car sales last month, with the annualized pace of used-vehicle sales staying 1 percent ahead of year-ago results.
Cox estimated a 38.1 million-unit seasonally adjusted annualized rate for used-car sales in October, which it said was down just a bit from October 2017.
On the new-car side, Edmunds is projecting 1.38 million retail sales and a 17.3 million SAAR this month.
A year ago, there were 1.39 million new-car sales, meaning this would be the first time in nine years that November new-car sales have declined on a year-over-year basis, according to Edmunds.
During this near-decade time frame, there has been growth in November sales “in part due to increasing demand following the recession, and in part due to November becoming a bigger sales month thanks to automakers and dealers capitalizing on Black Friday,” Edmunds said in a news release.
Sales are expected to be up from October, when 1.36 million new cars were sold.
“Retailers have been pushing Black Friday car deals through the entire month of November, so unless they decide to pull out all the stops in the 11th hour, this is likely going to be the first time we see November sales take a dip in nearly a decade,” said Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds’ manager of industry analysis, in a news release.
“Although sales remain at a healthy level, factors such as increasing market saturation, rising transaction prices and elevated interest rates continue to create headwinds for the industry overall. November’s sales slowdown signifies a new normal that we can expect through at least the end of 2018, and likely into 2019.”