The used-car market is trending toward 3.2 million sales this month, with a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 39.2 million, according to an analysis from Edmunds.

That’s down from May, when 3.3 million used cars were sold for a 39.3 million SAAR, Edmunds said, but the volumes of pre-owned cars coming out of leases this year and beyond perhaps provide some opportunity for the market.

At least from a supply perspective.

Lease penetration exceeded 30 percent in the last two years (32 percent in 2016, 31 percent in 2017) and is averaging 31 percent through the first five months of 2018, Edmunds said in its 2018 Automotive Industry Trends: Midyear Update.

In a similar analysis also released Wednesday, Cox Automotive said that, “notably, aggressive leasing strategies in recent years are now resulting in millions of ‘gently-used’ off-lease vehicles available to consumers and providing growing competition for the new-vehicle market.”

As for that new-car market, both Cox Automotive and Edmunds are each predicting 16.8 million sales this year.

Cox Automotive bumped its forecast up from 16.7 million, following an average SAAR of 17.1 million in the first five months of the year and expectations for the June SAAR to reach 16.9 million.

Edmunds is predicting a 17.1 million new-car SAAR for June. The 1.52 million new-car sales Edmunds forecasts would be up 3.4 percent year-over-year and down 4.1 percent from May.

“June sales look a bit healthier than they actually are because there was an additional selling day and weekend this year,” Edmunds manager of industry analysis Jeremy Acevedo said in a news release.

“On a daily selling rate basis, June sales were actually lower than last year,” he said. “This is exactly in line with how the rest of this year has gone: Sales look strong, but there are other factors at play that make this success a bit fragile.”

Along those line, both companies are reporting that the new-car market is strong, but appears to be reaching its apex for the year.

Said Acevedo: “The strength of the economy is creating a very thick forcefield for automakers now, but once that starts to weaken, there are a lot of market factors bubbling just below the surface that could really start to slow down sales.

“Even though millennials are finally starting to buy new vehicles, the U.S. market is virtually saturated,” he said. “Add to that record-high vehicle prices, rising interest rates and historically high numbers of people who owe more than their cars are worth, and the stage is set for a market contraction.”

In the Cox Automotive analysis, the company said overall market volatility and rising trouble could slow down the second half of the year for the new-car market, plus any sales slowdown from the proposed tariffs.

“All indicators tell us that we have reached peak market and it won’t be getting better from here,” Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough said.

“Monthly sales volume in June is expected to rise over last year, but June has one additional selling day this year — 27 instead of 26, and the pace is not expected to rise very much,” he said. “June sales volume is expected to reach 1.5 million, an increase of nearly 30,000 units over last year, but a decrease of nearly 85,000 units (down 5.3 percent) from May.”