Late-model auction volume showed some decline heading into the final month of 2018, according to the latest Guidelines report from J.D. Power Valuation Services.
Through 11 months, however, year-to-date volume was still beating year-ago figures by 4.7 percent, the report said. For context, late-model auction volume had climbed 5.3 percent through 10 months of 2018.
As for November, there was a 16-percent month-over-month decline in the auction volume of vehicles 5 years old and younger. Large utilities vehicles were the only segment not to see a double-digit sequential decrease in volume, J.D. Power said.
Compared to the year-ago period, late-model auction volume was off 4 percent in November.
Offering some projections, J.D. Power said that “used supply is expected to increase in 2018 relative to 2017 before peaking in 2019 and leveling off in subsequent years.”
In a separate report, RVI Analytics discussed the impact of off-lease supply on used-car prices going forward.
In that report, released in late October, the company said the RVI Used Vehicle Price Index for full-year 2018 was likely to grow 3.1 percent over 2017. However, the index is likely to see a 1.6-percent year-over-year decline in each of the next two years, before rebounding 3.3 percent in 2021, the RVI data shows.
Compared to where used-car prices currently stand, RVI projecting them to be down 4.5 percent by 2021.
“We expect lease penetration to decline from record highs over the next three years,” RVI analysts said in the report’s synopsis. “Thus, this supply of off-leased vehicles (record highs) will enter the market, and drive further declines in used-vehicle prices.”
Speaking of leases and off-lease supply, RVI gave some more concrete numbers within the report.
It pegged lease penetration at 22.3 percent of new-car sales in the second quarter, a figure the firm is anticipating will soften in the next two years.
But off-lease volume, which was up 9.8 percent year-over-year in September, should remain on the upswing for the next two years, RVI said.