Late-model auction volume for full-year 2018, consisting of vehicles up to 5 years in age, still appears poised to beat year-ago figures by an estimated 6 percent to 6.5 percent.
That’s according to J.D. Power Valuation Services, which included an auction volume forecast in its latest edition of Guidelines released Tuesday.
Through 10 months of the year, late-model auction volume has climbed 5.3 percent, J.D. Power said. And again, that gain should increase by year’s end.
Those figures follow an 11.6-percent year-over-year rise in late-model volume during October, which also showed volume up 13.1 percent month-over-month.
Breaking it down by vehicle type, J.D. Power is seeing significant growth in utility segment volume, including a 45-percent hike in luxury compact utilities and a 30-percent hike in large utilities. Meanwhile, there has been a 7-percent dip in volume for subcompact cars and a 1.4-percent decline for compacts.
Looking forward, J.D. Power analysts said in the report: “Overall, used supply is expected to increase in 2018 relative to 2017 before peaking in 2019 and leveling off in subsequent years.”
In a related but separate analysis, KAR Auction Services chief economist Tom Kontos said in the introduction to his mid-year Pulse report that even amid a market that has found ways to mitigate the impact of increased supply, “downward pressure from supply growth will remain a challenge to commercial and dealer consignors as supply growth continues.”
He then added: “On the other hand, the supply growth will be welcomed by purchasing dealers, given strong consumer demand for the full spectrum of used vehicles from late-model CPO vehicles to older units from buy-here, pay- here sales.”